EURUSD 25th May, 2015

We expected price to move up slightly, but instead it kept declining a bit, although in a very choppy manner.

Given the nature and extent of this recent movement, we have some strong indications that price is in very suitable conditions for a trend reversal.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0462
– Confirmation Point: 1.0981 – 1.1010
– Upward Target: 1.1209 – 1.1467
– Wave number: Minor 3
– Wave structure: Actionary Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 25th May, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is starting a significant uptrend in cycle wave y, which may be unfolding as a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave A is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (1) is forming a leading diagonal labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 1 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave 2 is forming another zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, and it’s either complete or very near completion.

This count expects the euro soon to be resume moving towards the upside in minor wave 3.

We’ll have to wait for confirmation that minor wave 2 has ended before we can calculate targets for minor wave 3. But we have a logical target at 1.1467, as minor wave 3 will have to exceed the end of minor wave 1.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0462 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minor wave 2 is forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minute wave a formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (I) through (v).

Minute wave b formed a double combination labeled minuette waves (w), (x) and (y), retracing 38.2% of minute wave a.

Minute wave c is forming an ending diagonal, labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), each subdividing into a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

At this point, minute wave c reached over 61.8% the length of minute wave a, and minor wave 2 retraced over 50% of minor wave 1, so it’s most likely complete.

This count expects the euro soon to resume moving towards the upside in minor wave 3. This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.0981, with higher confirmation above 1.1010.

We’ll have to wait for confirmation that minor wave 2 has ended before we can calculate targets for minor wave 3. But we have two logical targets: at 1.1209, which is the start of minute wave c, and at 1.1467, as minor wave 3 will have to exceed the end of minor wave 1.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0462 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. Once price reaches both of our confirmation point, we may raise the invalidation point to the end of minor wave 2, which currently stands at 1.0931.

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