Archives for May 2015

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached our confirmation point at 1.0929, and then continued its upwards rise. But even though the rally seems to have substance and is supported by momentum, and while it fits our big picture view, we're still not fully convinced that a continuation of the uptrend is taking place. We'd like to see a completed 5-wave movement and a break above 1.1062 before we have full confidence of this count. If price makes a new low, we're going to have to seriously reconsider our entire view. With a complete 5-wave moment towards the downside, it would be logical to assume that the much larger downtrend is back in effect. But let's not jump to conclusions too early, and wait until enough evidence presents itself for this possibility. We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

Another repeat of the scenario that's been taking place over the past few days: Price continued its somewhat sloppy decline, right as momentum kept slowly rising. While it's now more likely that EURUSD has been forming an impulse (rather than a diagonal), we still think that the decline is very close to exhaustion and that downwards potential is fairly limited. We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

Price continued its choppy and overlapping movement towards the downside, at the same time that momentum is slowly rising. This gives more weight to our view that an ending diagonal is unfolding (and nearing completion). The recent decline requires a few adjustments to our labeling, but the general picture remains exactly the same. We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

We expected price to move up slightly, but instead it kept declining a bit, although in a very choppy manner. Given the nature and extent of this recent movement, we have some strong indications that price is in very suitable conditions for a trend reversal. We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

Price dropped rather sharply for over 200 pips, invalidating once and for all our preferred count of an impulse towards the upside. This brings us to the second most likely count, which is that of a leading diagonal. We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More