Archives for May 2015
Cable unfolded towards the downside as expected. Both targets were reached and exceeded by less than 7 pips.
"Trend is your friend" proves to be of great value. Most traders forget the rest of that famous quote which states "Trend is your friend except at the end where it bends"*; We are yet to witness a bend in this trend and therefore we will keep following the trend.
Today`s main count expects Cable to continue its downtrend while the alternate count expects the completion of wave B blue and that wave C blue has started unfolding towards the upside.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation points to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
* Quote from Schwager, Jack D. book "Technical Analysis"
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EURUSD 28th May, 2015
As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached our confirmation point at 1.0929, and then continued its upwards rise.
But even though the rally seems to have substance and is supported by momentum, and while it fits our big picture view, we're still not fully convinced that a continuation of the uptrend is taking place. We'd like to see a completed 5-wave movement and a break above 1.1062 before we have full confidence of this count.
If price makes a new low, we're going to have to seriously reconsider our entire view. With a complete 5-wave moment towards the downside, it would be logical to assume that the much larger downtrend is back in effect. But let's not jump to conclusions too early, and wait until enough evidence presents itself for this possibility.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
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GBPUSD 27th May, 2015
Cable unfolded towards the downside as expected under the alternate count. Both targets were reached and exceeded by 29 pips.
Evidence is compiling against the current corrective downtrend but nonetheless, we should always assume that the trend remains the same until proven otherwise as that is what the market keep teaching us day in and day out. We will go through the studies supporting trend reversal in today`s analysis.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation points to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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EURUSD 27th May, 2015
Another repeat of the scenario that's been taking place over the past few days: Price continued its somewhat sloppy decline, right as momentum kept slowly rising.
While it's now more likely that EURUSD has been forming an impulse (rather than a diagonal), we still think that the decline is very close to exhaustion and that downwards potential is fairly limited.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
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GBPUSD 26th May, 2015
Cable unfolded towards the downside as expected reaching the first target and falling shy of the second target by 8 pips before reversing directions towards the upside.
Today`s main count explores the upwards possibilities for Cable and it is worth mentioning that we will be able to calculate short term targets once the wave we are tracking starts to subdivide upwards. The alternate count expects that Cable`s corrective downtrend has more to offer.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation points to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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EURUSD 26th May, 2015
Price continued its choppy and overlapping movement towards the downside, at the same time that momentum is slowly rising. This gives more weight to our view that an ending diagonal is unfolding (and nearing completion).
The recent decline requires a few adjustments to our labeling, but the general picture remains exactly the same.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
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GBPUSD 25th May, 2015
Cable unfolded in a tight range. Main count was confirmed and targets are yet to be reached.
We are updating the main count according to the latest price action with short term targets and invalidation points. As well we are adding an alternate count which expects Cable to unfold towards the upside in a corrective manner.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation points to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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EURUSD 25th May, 2015
We expected price to move up slightly, but instead it kept declining a bit, although in a very choppy manner.
Given the nature and extent of this recent movement, we have some strong indications that price is in very suitable conditions for a trend reversal.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
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GBPUSD 22nd May, 2015
Cable unfolded towards the downside as expected and first confirmation point was reached and Cable is yet to reach the final confirmation point and targets.
We are updating the main count according to the latest price action with short term targets and invalidation points. As well we are updating the alternate count which expects Cable to make new highs to complete wave a pink, it is worth noting that the alternate count is presented on a 6-hours chart for clarification purposes.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation points to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
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EURUSD 22nd May, 2015
Price dropped rather sharply for over 200 pips, invalidating once and for all our preferred count of an impulse towards the upside.
This brings us to the second most likely count, which is that of a leading diagonal.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
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