The market had an eventful day, where price first declined slightly but failed to reach our expected target, then it immediately rallied to a new high, reached our first “daily” target at 1.1192 and exceeded it by 74 pips.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0849
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downward Target: 1.1125 – 1.1037
– Wave number: Minute iv
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 30th April, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro completed a multi-year decline in cycle wave x, which formed a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave C formed an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).
Now the euro is starting a significant uptrend in cycle wave y, which may be unfolding as a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave A is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5), within which intermediate wave (1) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Minor wave 1 formed a quick and swift impulse.
Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 90% of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, within which minute waves i, ii, and possibly iii are complete.
This count expects the euro to continue subdividing in minute waves iv and v to complete minor wave 3.
At 1.1474 minor wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.2064 it would reach 261.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0462 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that minute wave iii formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), reaching over 161.8% the length of minute wave i.
Within it, minuette wave (iii) formed an extension labeled submnuette waves i through v, reaching exactly 261.8% the length of minuette wave (i).
Within it, subminuette wave iii formed another extension labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
This count expects that minute wave iii is now complete and that the euro is going to move sideways to downwards in minute wave iv.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a series of bearish divergences between the latest fifth and third waves.
At 1.1125 minute wave iv would retrace 23.6% of minute wave iii, then at 1.1037 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0849 as minute wave iv may not enter the price territory of minute wave i.
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This count sees that primary wave C is still unfolding towards the downside, and within it intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.
This count expects the euro to continue moving toward the upside in minor wave C to complete intermediate wave (4) to complete primary wave C.
At 1.1388 intermediate wave (4) would retrace 38.2% of intermediate wave (3), and come right to the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2500 as intermediate wave (4) may not enter the price territory of intermediate wave (1).