EURUSD 29th April, 2015

As expected price continued moving towards the upside, but the length of this rally greatly exceeded our targets by over 100 pips, increasing our confidence that a third wave is unfolding.

We’ve also made some changes to the hourly count to make it a better fit for the wave patterns, Fibonacci ratios, and the momentum signature.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0900
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upward Target: 1.1047 – 1.0960
– Wave number: Minuette (iv)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 29th April, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro completed a multi-year decline in cycle wave x, which formed a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave C formed an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (5) formed an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5, reaching exactly twice the length of intermediate wave (3).

Minor wave 1 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave 2 formed an expanded flat labeled minute waves a, b, and c, retracing 38.2% of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching 261.8% the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 formed a contracting-barrier triangle labeled minute waves a through e.

Minor wave 5 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching exactly 61.8% the length of minor wave 3.

This count expects that the euro is now starting a significant uptrend in cycle wave y, which may be unfolding as a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave A is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5), within which intermediate wave (1) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 1 formed a quick and swift impulse.

Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 90% of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, within which minute waves i and ii are complete.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the upside in minute wave iii.

At 1.1192 minute wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of minute wave i, then at 1.1520 it would reach 261.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0520 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minute wave iii is forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minuette wave (i) formed a leading diagonal labeled submnuette waves i through v.

Minuette wave (ii) formed a flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Minuette wave (iii) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, reaching a few pips less than 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i), and it’s probably complete. It could be that minuette wave (iii) is actually forming an extension within its third wave, but we’ll wait for further price action to confirm or negate this possibility.

This count expects the euro to move sideways to downwards in minuette wave (iv).

At 1.1047 minuette wave (iv) would retrace 38.2% of minuette wave wave (iii), then at 1.0960 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0900 as minuette wave (iv) may not enter the price territory of minuette wave (i).

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This count sees that primary wave C is still unfolding towards the downside, and within it intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.

This count expects the euro to continue moving toward the upside in minor wave C to complete intermediate wave (4) to complete primary wave C.

At 1.1388 intermediate wave (4) would retrace 38.2% of intermediate wave (3), and come right to the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2500 as intermediate wave (4) may not enter the price territory of intermediate wave (1).

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