EURUSD 28th April, 2015

Price did not move exactly as expected, as price exceeded our project advance target at 1.0942 by 50 pips. The wave structure is rather unclear at this point, and the more fitting count I find now is that the market is forming a series of extensions within a third wave towards the upside.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0926
– Confirmation Point: 1.0991
– Upward Target: 1.1032 – 1.1072
– Wave number: Submicro (5)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th April, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro completed a multi-year decline in cycle wave x, which formed a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave C formed an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (5) formed an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5, reaching exactly twice the length of intermediate wave (3).

Minor wave 1 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave 2 formed an expanded flat labeled minute waves a, b, and c, retracing 38.2% of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching 261.8% the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 formed a contracting-barrier triangle labeled minute waves a through e.

Minor wave 5 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching exactly 61.8% the length of minor wave 3.

This count expects that the euro is now starting a significant uptrend in cycle wave y, which may be unfolding as a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave A is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5), within which intermediate wave (1) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 1 formed a quick and swift impulse.

Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 90% of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, within which minute waves i and ii are complete.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the upside in minute wave iii.

At 1.1198 minute wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of minute wave i, then at 1.1527 it would reach 261.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0520 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minute wave iii is forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Within it, minuette wave (iii) is forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Within it, subminuette wave iii is forming an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Within it, micro wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).

Submicro wave (2) retraced exactly 61.8% of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (4) retraced exactly 23.6% of submicro wave (3).

This count expects the euro to resume moving towards the upside in submicro wave (5) to complete micro wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0991.

At 1.1032 submicro wave (5) would reach 61.8% the length of submicro wave (1), then at 1.1072 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0926 as submicro wave (4) may not enter the price territory of submicro wave (1).

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This count sees that primary wave C is still unfolding towards the downside, and within it intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y.

This count expects the euro soon to continue moving toward the downside in intermediate wave (5) to complete primary wave C. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0520, with further confirmation below 1.0462.

At 1.0285 primary wave C would reach 100% the length of primary wave A.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2500 as intermediate wave (4) may not enter the price territory of intermediate wave (1).

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