EURUSD 27th April, 2015

The euro spent the day moving mostly in a sideways, overlapping manner, making a slight new high in the process, but remaining away from all of our confirmation and invalidation points.

The nature and structure of this latest price development suggest most likely that a diagonal is unfolding and nearing completion. Both of our counts today share the exact same view for the near future, but they differ in their big-picture outlook, as we’ll explain below.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0666
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downward Target: 1.0832 – 1.0768
– Wave number: Minuette (ii)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Combination

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1035
– Confirmation Point: 1.0666
– Downward Target: 1.0434 – 1.0115
– Wave number: Minor 3
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th April, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro completed a multi-year decline in cycle wave x, which formed a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave C formed an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (5) formed an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5, reaching exactly twice the length of intermediate wave (3).

Minor wave 1 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave 2 formed an expanded flat labeled minute waves a, b, and c, retracing 38.2% of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching 261.8% the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 formed a contracting-barrier triangle labeled minute waves a through e.

Minor wave 5 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching exactly 61.8% the length of minor wave 3.

This count expects that the euro is now starting a significant uptrend in cycle wave y, which may be unfolding as a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave A is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5), within which intermediate wave (1) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1389.

Minor wave 1 formed a quick and swift impulse.

Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 90% of minor wave 1.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the upside in minor wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1052.

At 1.1474 minor wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.2062 it would reach 261.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0458 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minor wave 3 is unfolding towards the upside as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave iii is forming an extension labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minuette wave (i) is forming a leading diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v, each forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

This count expects the euro to make a slight new high in subminuette wave v to complete minuette wave (i), possibly somewhere around 1.0942, before reversing towards the downside in minuette wave (ii).

Our preliminary targets are: at 1.0832 minuette wave (ii) would retrace 38.2% of minuette wave (i), then at 1.0768 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0666 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minette wave (i).

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This count sees that intermediate wave (5) of primary wave C is still unfolding towards the downside as an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 1 formed an impulse, and minor wave 2 retraced exactly 78.6% of its length so far.

This count expects the euro soon to continue moving toward the downside in minor wave 3. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.0520, with further confirmation below 1.0462.

At 1.0113 intermediate wave (5) would reach 61.8% the length of intermediate wave (1), then at 0.9542 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1035 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minor wave 2 is forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minute wave c is forming an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), each forming a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

This count expects the euro to make a slight new high in minuette wave (v) to complete minute wave c of minor wave 2, possibly somewhere around 1.0942, before reversing towards the downside in minor wave 3. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.0666.

Our preliminary targets are: at 1.0434 minor wave 3 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.0115 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1035 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

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