GBPUSD 25th February, 2015

Cable unfolded as expected and first target was reached and exceeded. Second target is only 6 pips away and we are updating the main count according to the latest price action.

The latest upwards movement is not as clear as we would have preferred and this is why we are adding an alternate count which expects that minor wave A blue is likely complete and that minor wave B blue has started.

As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Points: 1.5332 — 1.7193
– Confirmation Point: 1.5481
– Upwards Targets: 1.5559 — 1.5598
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Points: 1.4951 — 1.5553
– Confirmation Point: 1.5332
– Downwards Targets: 1.5322 — 1.5252
– Wave number: B blue
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 25th February, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

This count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete as a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C) black and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.

Within wave C maroon intermediate wave (1) black is likely complete as an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5 blue and that intermediate wave (2) black is at its early stages.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled minute waves i through v pink.

wave 2 blue unfolded as a zigzag structure labeled minute waves a, b and c pink.

Wave 3 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v pink.

Wave 4 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c pink.

Wave 5 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v pink with minute wave iii unfolding as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) green.

Within intermediate wave (2) black, minor wave A blue is unfolding towards the upside as an impulse with minute waves i through iii pink complete and it is likely that minute wave iv pink is mature and wave v pink is starting to unfold towards the upside.

As far as MACD study goes, a valid interpretation of current MACD state is that MACD readings are expected to reach the peak by the end of wave A blue. Setting the stage for a divergence once wave C blue is complete.

Viewing the blue trend line touching the ends of minor waves 2 and 4 blue, it seems that Cable is breaking out from the downtrend. That blue trend line should provide support to any incoming downwards correction.

At 1.5588 wave v pink will reach equality with wave i pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5316 as within wave v pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7193 as intermediate wave (2) black may not retrace more than 100 % the length of intermediate wave (1) black.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count expects that intermediate wave (1) black might be complete and that intermediate wave (2) black has started unfolding towards the upside.

Within intermediate wave (2) black, it is expected that minor wave A blue is unfolding towards the upside as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink with waves i through iii pink complete and wave iv pink is likely complete and wave v pink is starting to unfold towards the upside.

Wave i pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green with wave (iii) green unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within it wave (iii) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (v) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave v pink it is expected that waves (i) and (ii) green are complete and wave (iii) green is unfolding towards the upside. Therefore it is expected that wave A blue is at its very late stages as the structure within it seems mature.

Within wave (iii) green waves i and ii orange are expected complete and wave iii orange is unfolding towards the upside.

The problem with this count is with its time relationships as wave iv pink took less time to unfold than wave (ii) green.

As far as MACD study goes, MACD is showing a bearish divergence as the latest price upwards movements failed to register higher highs on MACD.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.5553.

At 1.5559 wave (iii) green will reach 1.382 the length of wave (i) green and at 1.5598 wave (iii) green will reach 1.618 the length of wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5332 as within wave (iii) green wave ii orange may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave i orange and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave ii orange. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7193 as intermediate wave (2) black may not retrace more than 100 % the length of intermediate wave (1) black.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count


P.S.: This count is presented on a 6 hours chart for clarification purposes.

This count explores the possibility that wave A blue is mature and might be complete and that wave B blue is unfolding towards the downside as a zigzag correction specially since the latest upwards movement is quite unclear.

Wave A blue unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.

Actionary waves within leading diagonals -i.e. waves 1, 3 and 5- can unfold either as a three wave structure or as a three wave structure. In this leading diagonal, actionary waves unfolded as a three wave structure.

Each wave within that leading diagonal unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

To gain confidence in this count we need to see a clear five wave structure toward the downside and that downwards movement should move below 1.5332 to confirm this count.

At 1.5322 wave B blue will reach 0.382 the length of wave A blue and at 1.5252 wave B blue will reach 50 % the length of wave A blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4951 as wave B blue may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave A blue. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5553 as within wave B blue no B wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of an A wave.

2 thoughts on “GBPUSD 25th February, 2015”

    1. Hi Sandy,

      Thank you for your kind words. This means a lot specially since it is coming from a fellow Elliottician :).

      I agree that it is still too soon to judge the nature and extent of this downwards movement. Analyzing and labeling this movement one step at a time is the safest route if I may say.

      Sincerely,
      Nady

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