Finally the euro came back to life, dropping impulsively for 200 pips non-stop. This marks the completion of the triangle that we’ve been waiting for, as price moved below 1.1278.
While it’s still technically possible for the correction to be forming an even more complex correction, it’s much more likely that the downtrend has resumed. We’ll keep track of both possibilities, as always, but we’ll focus only on the more likely scenario in order to keep the daily analysis concise and practical.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1380
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upward Target: 1.1258 – 1.1305
– Wave number: Minute ii
– Wave structure: Correcitve
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th February, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving towards the downside in primary wave C (of cycle wave x), which is unfolding as an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).
Intermediate wave (3) formed an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5, touching 261.8% the length of intermediate wave (1). Within it, minor waves 1, 3 and 5 each subdivided as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Intermediate wave (4) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y.
Intermediate wave (5) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Minor wave 1 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Minor wave 2 formed an expanded flat labeled minute waves a, b, and c, retracing 38.2% of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching 261.8% the length of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 4 formed a contracting triangle labeled minute waves a through e.
This count expects the euro to be moving toward the downside in minor wave 5 to complete intermediate wave (5), and therefore primary wave C, and therefore cycle wave x. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1098.
At 1.1052 minor wave 5 would reach 61.8% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.0850 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1380 as this is the start of minor wave 5.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that minor wave 4 formed a triangle labeled minute waves a through e, where each – except for minute wave e – subdivided as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minute wave e itself formed another contracting triangle labeled minuette waves (a) through (e), retracing 61.8% of minute wave d.
Minor wave 5 is probably unfolding as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse.
This count expects the euro to move temporarily toward the upside in minute wave ii.
At 1.1258 minute wave ii would retrace 38.2% of minute wave i, then at 1.1305 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1380 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.