GBPUSD 30th December, 2014

It was expected that Cable is going to unfold towards the downside under the main count which was not what happened and Cable reversed directions moving towards the upside and the invalidation point is yet to be reached. Therefore the main count idea is still intact.

However, Cable broke the trend line connecting minute waves ii and iv pink towards the upside and that increases the probabilities of the alternate count. If the alternate count is the correct one, Cable should find support above that trend line.

At this stage both counts have equal probabilities and as always we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be met to determine the highly probable count.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5587 — 1.5389
– Confirmation Points: 1.5501
– Downwards Targets: 1.5674 — 1.5464
– Wave number: v pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Ending diagonal

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5486 — 1.7193
– Confirmation Points: 1.5587
– Upwards Target: 1.5602 — 1.5662
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 30th December, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

gbpusd30dec14daily1

This count expects that wave B maroon is complete as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) black and that wave C maroon is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Within wave C maroon wave (1) black is at its late stages with waves 1 through 4 blue complete and wave 5 blue is unfolding towards the downside.

Within wave (1) black Wave 1 blue unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.

wave 2 blue unfolded as a zigzag structure labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave 3 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave 4 blue unfolded as a double combination labeled waves w,x and y pink with wave y pink failing to create a new high above the end of wave w pink.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5486.

At 1.5464 wave v pink within wave 5 blue will reach 0.618 the length of wave iii pink and at 1.5419 wave 5 blue will reach 0.618 the length of wave 3 blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5787 as within wave 5 blue no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count

gbpusd30dec14hourly
gbpusd30dec14hourlymacd

This count expects that wave (1) black is at its late stages with waves 1 through 4 blue complete and wave 5 blue is unfolding towards the downside.

Wave 4 blue unfolded as a double combination labeled waves w, x and y pink.

Wave x pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (b) green unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e orange.

Wave y pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave 5 blue is likely to be unfolding as an ending diagonal labeled waves i through v pink with waves i through iv pink complete and wave v pink is unfolding towards the downside.

Wave i pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave iii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave v pink waves (a) and (b) green are expected complete and wave (c) green is starting to unfold towards the upside.

As far as MACD study goes, MACD is showing an almost invisible hidden divergence which -on its own- does not add to the main count`s credibility since the upper trend line connecting minute waves ii and iv pink was breached today.

The lower black trend line connecting minute waves i and iii pink should provide support to further downwards movement.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5501.

At 1.5674 minute wave v pink will reach 0.382 the distance traveled from the start of minute wave i pink to the end of minute wave iii pink and at 1.5464 minute wave v pink will reach 0.618 the length of minute wave iii pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5587 as within minute wave v pink no B wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of an A wave. Also this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5389 as by movement below that level wave iii pink will be the shortest wave and that violates Elliott`s rule that a third wave cannot be the shortest wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

gbpusd30dec14hourlyalt

This count expects that intermediate wave (1) black is complete and that intermediate wave (2) black is at its early stages.

Minor wave 4 blue unfolded as a triangle labeled minute waves a through e pink.

Minute wave b pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within intermediate wave (2) black minuette waves (i) and (ii) green are expected complete and minuette wave (iii) green is expected to be unfolding upwards.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement above 1.5587.

At 1.5602 minuette wave (iii) green will reach equality with minuette wave (i) green and at 1.5662 minuette wave (iii) green will reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5486 as minuette wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % the length of minuette wave (i) green. It should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of minuette wave (ii) green once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that minuette wave (iii) green is underway. As well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7193 as intermediate wave (2) black may not retrace more than 100 % the length of intermediate wave (1) black.

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