GBPUSD 26th December, 2014

Cable continued drifting towards the upside increasing the probabilities of the alternate count.

We are updating both counts according to the latest price action and the main count expects one last decline before completing wave (1) black. The alternate count on the other hand expects further upwards corrective movement within wave 5 blue.

As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be met to determine the highly probable count.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5683 — 1.5389
– Confirmation Points: 1.5486
– Downwards Targets: 1.5464
– Wave number: v pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Ending diagonal

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5683 — 1.5486
– Confirmation Points: —
– Upwards Target: 1.5607
– Wave number: (ii) green
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 26th December, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

gbpusd26dec14daily

This count expects that wave B maroon is complete as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) black and that wave C maroon is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Within wave C maroon wave (1) black is at its late stages with waves 1 through 4 blue complete and wave 5 blue is unfolding towards the downside.

Within wave (1) black Wave 1 blue unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.

wave 2 blue unfolded as a zigzag structure labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave 3 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave 4 blue unfolded as a double combination labeled waves w,x and y pink with wave y pink failing to create a new high above the end of wave w pink.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5486.

At 1.5464 wave v pink within wave 5 blue will reach 0.618 the length of wave iii pink and at 1.5419 wave 5 blue will reach 0.618 the length of wave 3 blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5787 as within wave 5 blue no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count

gbpusd26dec14hourly
gbpusd26dec14hourlymacd

This count expects that wave (1) black is at its late stages with waves 1 through 4 blue complete and wave 5 blue is unfolding towards the downside.

Wave 4 blue unfolded as a double combination labeled waves w, x and y pink.

Wave x pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (b) green unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e orange.

Wave y pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave 5 blue is likely to be unfolding as an ending diagonal labeled waves i through v pink with waves i through iv pink complete and wave v pink is unfolding towards the downside.

Wave i pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave iii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

As far as MACD study goes, the presence of a bearish divergence on the hourly chart -as MACD registered new highs while price action did not reflect that high- suggests downwards reversal. However, we will only be assured of that reversal with price moving below the confirmation point.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5486.

At 1.5464 wave v pink will reach 0.618 the length of wave iii pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5683 as wave iv pink may not exceed the end of wave ii pink within an ending diagonal and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave iv pink once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave v pink is unfolding towards the downside. Also this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5389 as by movement below that level wave iii pink will be the shortest wave and that violates Elliott`s rule that a third wave cannot be the shortest wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

gbpusd26dec14hourlyalt

This count expects that wave 5 blue is unfolding towards the downside as an impulse.

Within wave 5 blue waves i and ii pink are expected complete and wave iii pink is extending towards the downside.

Wave i pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within wave iii pink wave (i) green is expected complete and wave (ii) green is unfolding towards the upside.

At 1.5607 wave (ii) green will reach 0.618 the length of wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5486 as within wave (ii) green no B wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of an A wave. As well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5683 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave (i) green.

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