Even though the euro continued moving toward the downside past our invalidation point, its movement so far has been in 3 waves, which highly suggests that an ending diagonal may very well be unfolding as the final stage of this protracted downtrend.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2144
– Confirmation Point: 1.2097
– Downward Target : 1.2083 – 1.2067
– Wave number: Micro 5
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 31st December 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving towards the downside in primary wave C (of cycle wave x), which is unfolding as an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).
Intermediate wave (1) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled minute waves i through v.
Minor wave 2 formed a flat labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 38.2% of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching well over 261.8% the length of minor wave 1. Within it, minute waves i, iii and v each subdivided as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minor wave 4 retraced 23.6% of minor wave 3.
Minor wave 5 is forming an impulse, and it’s nearing 100% the length of minor wave 1.
This count expects minor wave 5 to continue moving toward the downside to complete intermediate wave (1).
At 1.2079 minor wave 5 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.1776 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2570 as this is the start of minor wave 5.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees minor wave 5 is unfolding as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Minute wave iii formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minute wave iv formed a double zigzag labeled minuette waves (w), (x) and (y), where each consisted of subminuette waves a, b and c.
Minute wave v seems most likely to be unfolding as an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minuette wave (i) is forming a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Subminuette wave a formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Subminuette wave b formed a contracting triangle labeled micro waves A through E, retracing about 50% of subminuette wave a.
Subminuette wave c is forming an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5, within which micro waves 1 through 4 are most likely complete.
This count expects micro wave 5 to unfold toward the downside to complete subminuette wave c, and thereby minuette wave (i). This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.2097.
At 1.2083 micro wave 5 would reach 100% the length of micro wave 1, then at 1.2067 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2144 as micro wave 4 within this impulse may not enter the price territory of micro wave 1.
If price moves above this invalidation point, then minuette wave (i) is complete and minuette wave (ii) has begun unfolding toward the upside.