GBPUSD 28th October, 2014

On Tuesday`s session Cable unfolded towards the upside and -so far- it fell short of the main count`s confirmation point by 2 pips.

We are updating both main and alternate counts according to the latest price action and it is worth noting that the probabilities of the alternate count is decreasing but it remains valid as its invalidation point is yet to be met.

As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5874 — 1.7193
– Confirmation Point: 1.6183
– Upwards Targets: 1.6241 — 1.6335
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6185
– Confirmation Point: 1.5874
– Downwards Targets: 1.5784 — 1.5536
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 28th October, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

01-gbpusd28oct14daily

This count expects that wave B maroon is complete as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) black and that wave C maroon is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Within wave C maroon wave (1) black is expected to be complete as a leading diagonal labeled waves waves 1 through 5 blue.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave a pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave c pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and z pink.

Wave 3 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave 4 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave 5 blue unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y pink.

This count expects that wave (2) black is starting to unfold towards the upside.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement above 1.6227.

At 1.6378 wave (2) black will reach 0.382 the length of wave (1) black and at 1.6688 wave (2) black will reach 0.618 the length of wave (1) black.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5874 as within wave A blue within wave (2) black no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave and as well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7193 as wave (2) black may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave (1) black.

Main Hourly Wave Count

02-gbpusd28oct14hourly

This count expects that wave (1) black within wave C maroon is likely complete and that wave (2) black is at its early stages.

Wave (1) black unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves 1 through 5 blue.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave a pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave c pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y pink.

Wave 3 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave 4 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave 5 blue unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y pink with each wave within that double zigzag unfolding as a three wave structure labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave (2) black wave A blue is underway with waves i and ii pink likely complete and wave iii pink is starting to unfold towards the upside.

Wave i pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green with wave (iv) green unfolding as a triangle labeled waves a, b, c, d and e orange. Wave ii pink is expected underway.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Within wave iii pink waves (i) and (ii) green are expected complete and wave (iii) green is expected to be unfolding towards the upside.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.6183.

At 1.6241 wave (iii) green will reach equality with wave (i) green and at 1.6335 wave (iii) green will reach 1.618 the length of wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5993 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave (i) green and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave (ii) green once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave (iii) green is underway. As well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7193 as wave (2) black may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave (1) black.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

03-gbpusd28oct14hourlyalt
P.S.: This count is presented on a 6-hours chart for clarification purposes.

This count has lower probabilities as it does not provide the best fit.

Wave C maroon is expected to be unfolding towards the downside and within it wave (1) black is underway.

Within wave (1) black waves 1 and 2 blue are expected complete and wave 3 blue is unfolding towards the downside.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Within wave 3 blue waves i and ii pink are expected complete and wave iii pink is underway.

Wave i pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green with wave (iii) green unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green with each wave within that double zigzag unfolding as a three wave structure labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Within wave iii pink waves (i) and (ii) green are expected complete and wave (iii) green is at its early stages.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5874.

At 1.5784 wave (iii) green will reach 0.618 the length of wave (i) green and at 1.5536 wave (iii) green will reach equality with wave (i) green and it is worth mentioning that these targets are considered conservative and will be updated as wave (iii) green starts its development towards the downside.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6185 as within wave (iii) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave.

Food For Thought: According to the main count, wave (2) black is expected to be underway. Second waves following a leading diagonal -represented by wave (1) black- are known to be very deep corrections, however the way we setup the main count`s targets, keeps in mind the minor possibility of a shallow correction for wave (2) black. That possibility would assume that within wave (2) black, waves A and B blue are complete and that wave C blue is unfolding towards the upside.

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