EURUSD 27th October, 2014

The euro spent the day moving withing a tight, upwards channel. Its movement is clearly characterized by choppiness and overlap, which indicates that it’s a corrective movement.

However, in Elliott terms, we have two types of corrective movements: 1) actionary corrective, which occurs within diagonals in the direction of the one-larger trend, and 2) reactionary corrective, which occurs within regular corrections and usually takes place in the opposite direction of the one-larger trend.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. As usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point to confirm the other count.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2615 – 1.3504
– Confirmation Point: 1.2841
– Upwards Target : 1.2960 – 1.3001
– Wave number: Minute y
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2841
– Confirmation Point: 1.2615
– Downwards Target : 1.2649 – 1.2584
– Wave number: Minuette (z)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag or Flat

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th October 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd-daily

The bigger picture sees the euro moving downwards in intermediate wave (A), which is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave 2 formed a flat labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing just over 38.2% of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 unfolded as an impulse labeled minute wave i though v, nearly reaching 261.8% the length of minor wave 1.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minute wave iii also formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), reaching 161.8% the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave iv retraced exactly 23.6% of minute wave iii.

Minute wave v unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), reaching close to 100% the length of minute wave iii.

Minor wave 4 is probably unfolding as a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y.

This count expects the euro to make one more upwards push in minute wave y to complete minor wave 4.

At 1.2960 minor wave 4 would retrace 38.2% of minor wave 3, then at 1.3001 minute wave y would reach 100% the length of minute wave w.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3504 as minor wave 4 within this impulse may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1. No invalidation point may be placed at the lower end at this point, as the pattern may unfolded as an expanded flat or more complex formation.

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

This count sees that minor wave 4 is unfolding as a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y.

Minute wave x seems to have unfolded as a double zigzag labeled minuette waves (w), (x) and (y), each subdividing as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Minuette wave (y) reached 127.2% the length of minuette wave (w). And within it, subminuette wave c reached 100% the length of subminuette wave a.

Minute wave y is possibly unfolding as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minuette wave (a) possibly formed a leading diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minuette wave (b) is possibly unfolding as an expanded flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

This count expects the euro first to dip slightly lower to complete minuette wave (b), before reversing towards the upside in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave y and therefore minor wave 4.

At 1.2960 minor wave 4 would retrace 38.2% of minor wave 3, then at 1.3001 minute wave y would reach 100% the length of minute wave w.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3504 as minor wave 4 within this impulse may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.2615 as minuette wave (b) within this zigzag may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

This count sees that minute wave x is still unfolding as a triple combination labeled minuette waves (w) through (z).

Within it, minuette waves (w), (x) and (y) are complete, and the second minuette wave (x) is either complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to resume moving towards the downside in minuette wave (z) to complete minute wave x.

At 1.2649 minute wave x would retrace 61.8% of minute wave w, then at 1.2584 it would retrace 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2841 as it’s extremely unlikely for the second x-wave within a triple combination to move beyond the end of the first x-wave.

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