EURUSD 26th September, 2014

As expected under our main count, the euro continued moving towards the downside, reached our first target at 1.2697, and has exceeded it by 19 pips so far.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3504
– Confirmation Point: 1.2758
– Upwards Target : 1.2919 – 1.3069
– Wave number: Minor 4
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.2758
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.2647 – 1.2579
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th September 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd-daily

eurusd-macd-daily

The bigger picture sees the euro moving downwards in intermediate wave (A), which is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave 2 formed a flat labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing just over 38.2% of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 has unfolded as an impulse labeled minute wave i though v.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), with minuette wave (iii) forming an extension labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minute wave iii also formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), with minuette wave (iii) forming an extension labeled subminuette waves i through v. Minute wave iii as a whole reached 161.8% the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave iv retraced exactly 23.6% of minute wave iii.

Minute wave v has already exceeded 61.8% the length of minute wave i, and has come very close to 100% of its length, so it’s either complete or very near completion.

This count expects that minor wave 3 as a whole is either complete or very near completion, and that the euro is about to start moving towards the upside in minor wave 4.

Neither the MACD indicator nor candlestick analysis shows a clear signal at this point on the daily chart, although there are much clearer signals on the 6-hour and 1-hour charts.

At 1.2919 minor wave 4 would retrace 23.6% of minor wave 3, then at 1.3069 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3504 as minor wave 4 within this impulse may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1.

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

eurusd-macd-h1

This count sees that minute wave v of minor wave 3 has unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minuette wave (i) formed a leading diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minuette wave (ii) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing nearly 50% of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iii) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, where subminuette wave iii reached exactly 161.8% the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v reached exactly 100% the length of subminuette wave iii.

Minuette wave (iv) formed a triangle labeled subminuette waves a through e.

Minuette wave (v) has reached close to 61.8% the length of minuette wave (i).

This count expects that minuette wave (v) — and thereby minute wave v and minor wave 3 — are either complete or very near completion, and that the euro is about to start moving towards the upside in minor wave 4.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a clear bullish divergence between the ends of minuette waves (v) and (iii), which is the typical momentum signature at the end of 5-wave impulses.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.

At 1.2919 minor wave 4 would retrace 23.6% of minor wave 3, then at 1.3069 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3504 as minor wave 4 within this impulse may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1.

No invalidation point for this count can be placed on the downside yet, as we have to wait for the new wave to start subdividing.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

This count sees that minuette wave (v) is still unfolding and is likely to reach lower levels before completion.

At 1.2647 minuette wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.2579 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.2758 as within minuette wave (v) no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

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