GBPUSD – 3rd July, 2014 – Monthly

Over last month, Cable unfolded towards the upside as expected under the alternate count and the first target was reached and exceeded.

We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and as always we will wait for the main count`s confirmation point to be reached to gain further confidence in the main count.

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 3rd July, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Weekly Wave Count

01-gbpusd03jul14monthly
01-gbpusd03jul14monthlymacd

We do not have a high confidence in this count mainly because of the Fibonacci retracement of wave B blue within wave (B) black as this count expects a running flat for wave (B) black and based on that wave B blue is expected to retrace 90 % the length of wave A blue but wave B blue retraced 89.2 % the length of wave A blue.

This count expects that wave A maroon is complete as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) black.

Wave B maroon is expected to be underway as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) black with waves (A) and (B) black complete and wave (C) black is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave (A) black unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 blue.

Wave (B) black unfolded as a running flat labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave A blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave B blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave C blue unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves i through v pink with wave i pink unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave (C) black waves 1 through 4 blue are expected complete and wave 5 blue is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave 3 blue extended into waves i through v pink with wave iii pink extending into waves (i) through (v) green.

As far as MACD study goes, a divergence is underway between the end of wave 3 blue and new highs within wave 5 blue suggesting a decreasing momentum behind the latest upwards movement and that divergence supports the main count`s view.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.7178.

At 1.7201 wave v orange within wave iii pink within wave 5 blue will reach equality with wave i orange and at 1.7332 wave B maroon will reach 50 % the length of wave A maroon.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 2.1162 as wave B maroon may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave A maroon and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6460 as within wave 5 blue no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave.

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