As expected by our alternate count, the euro continued moving towards the downside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded them by 28 pips.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
6-Hour Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3577
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target : 1.3476 – 1.3510
– Wave number: Minuette (iv)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 25th July, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main 6-Hour Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving downwards in intermediate wave (A), which is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Minor wave 2 unfolded as a flat labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Within it, minute wave a formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minute wave b also formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), with minuette wave (a) subdividing into an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Minute wave c formed an expanding ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), each subdividing as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c. This diagonal had an irregular look, but it fulfilled the requirements of an expanding diagonal, with wave 3 being longer than wave 1, wave 4 being longer than wave 2, and wave 5 being longer than wave 3.
Minor wave 3 must be unfolding as an impulse labeled minute wave i though v.
Within it, minute wave i is most likely unfolding as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minuette wave (i) unfolded as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Minuette wave (ii) unfolded as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing just short of 61.8% of minuette wave (i).
Minuette wave (iii) unfolded as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, reaching 28 pips longer than 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i).
Within it, both subminuette waves iii and v formed impulses labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
This count expects the euro to start moving sideways to upwards in minuette wave (iv). And since minuette wave (ii) formed a zigzag, the guideline of alternation suggests that minuette wave (iv) will unfold as a sideways correction, so we can expect it to form a flat, a zigzag, or a combination.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a small bullish divergence.
In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.
At 1.3476 minuette wave (iv) would retrace 23.6% of minuette wave (iii), then at 1.3510 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3577 as minuette wave (iv) within this impulse may not enter the price territory of minuette wave (i).