It looks like we may have prematurely called the end of minuette wave (iii), as the euro made another low beyond its last one.
This decline, however, was not backed by momentum at all, suggesting that our call for sideways-to-upwards movement was indeed correct, but just a little early.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3577
– Confirmation Point:
– Upwards Target : 1.3476 – 1.3510
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 25th July 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.
Within it, primary waves A, B, C and D are complete.
Primary wave E is unfolding towards the downside most likely as a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (A) is probably forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Minor wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled minute waves i through v.
Minor wave 2 formed a flat labeled minute waves a, b and c, which retraced just over 38.2% of minor wave 1, and is now complete.
This count expects the euro to be continuing its downwards movement in minor wave 3, which must unfold as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a bearish crossover, as well as bearish momentum with both the fast and slow lines being below the zero-line.
In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point, but downwards bars appear to be strongly impulsive.
At 1.3211 minor wave 3 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.2907 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3701 as this is the assumed start of minor wave 3.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that minute wave i is unfolding towards the downside as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minuette wave (iii) unfolded as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Within it, subminuette wave v formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5, reaching twice as long as subminuette wave i.
Micro wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
Micro wave 3 was twice as long as micro wave 1.
Micro wave 4 formed a running flat labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C), retracing almost 38.2% of micro wave 3.
Micro wave 5 formed an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) through (5), reaching close to 161.8% the length of micro wave 1.
Overall, minuette wave (iii) was 28 pips longer than 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i), which is the typical length for a third wave.
This count expects the euro to start moving sideways to upwards in minuette wave (iv).
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a very clear bullish divergence.
In terms of candlestick analysis, this count is somewhat supported by the Hammer at the end of minuette wave (iii), but we still need further confirmation.
At 1.3476 minuette wave (iv) would retrace 23.6% of minuette wave (iii), then at 1.3510 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3577 as minuette wave (iv) within this impulse may not enter the price territory of minuette wave (i).