GBPUSD – 3rd June, 2014 – Monthly

Over last month, Cable unfolded towards the downside increasing the pobabilities of the main count. The main count`s confirmation point is yet to be reached and at this stage both main and alternate counts have almost equal probabilities.

We are updating both counts according to the latest price action and as always we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 3rd June, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Weekly Wave Count

01-gbpusd03jun14monthly

This count expects that wave A maroon is complete and that wave B maroon is unfolding in a sideways manner.

Wave A maroon unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) black.

Wave B maroon is unfolding as a triangle labeled waves (A) through (E) black with waves (A), (B) and (C) black complete and wave (D) black is at its early stages.

Wave (A) black unfolded towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave (B) black unfolded towards the downside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave (C) black unfolded towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave B blue unfolded towards the downside as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y pink with wave W blue unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green and wave x pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green. Wave y pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave C blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

As far as Japanese candlesticks study goes, presence of a “Shooting Star” pattern increases the probabilities of the main count.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.6460.

At 1.5257 wave (D) black will reach 0.618 the length of wave (B) black.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7043 as within a triangle wave (C) black may not exceed the end of wave (A) black and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave (C) black once we have confirmation on the weekly chart that wave (D) black is undrway as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4227 as wave (D) black may not move below the end of wave (B) black in a contracting triangle.

Alternate Weekly Wave Count

02-gbpusd03Jun14monthlyalt

This count is considered an alternate count mainly because of the Fibonacci retracement of wave B blue within wave (B) black as this count expects a running flat for wave (B) black and based on that wave B blue is expected to retrace 90 % the length of wave A blue but wave B blue retraced 89.2 % the length of wave A blue.

This count expects that wave A maroon is complete as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) black.

Wave B maroon is expected to be underway as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) black with waves (A) and (B) black complete and wave (C) black is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave (A) black unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 blue.

Wave (B) black unfolded as a running flat labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave A blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave B blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave C blue unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves i through v pink with wave i pink unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave (C) black waves 1 through 4 blue are expected complete and wave 5 blue is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave 3 blue extended into waves i through v pink with wave iii pink extending into waves (i) through (v) green.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.7043.

At 1.7081 wave 5 blue will reach equality with wave 1 blue and at 1.7332 wave B maroon will reach 50 % the length of wave A maroon.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 2.1162 as wave B maroon may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave A maroon and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6460 as within wave 5 blue no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave.

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