As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached our first target at 1.3691, and exceeded it by 8 pips.
The pattern that the euro is forming is becoming clearer, and it confirms our expectations from last week. This suggests that we’re about to see another week or so of choppy, sideways movement as the euro makes its way upwards.
We’re updating our count to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
6-Hour Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3995 – 1.3514
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target : 1.3691 – 1.3807
– Wave number: Minute c
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Expanding Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th June, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main 6-Hour Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.
Within it, primary waves A, B, C and D are complete.
Primary wave E is unfolding towards the downside most likely as a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (A) is probably forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Minor wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled minute waves i through v, each subdividing as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minor wave 2 is most likely unfolding as a flat labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Minute wave a formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minute wave b formed a combination labeled minuette waves (w), (x) and (y).
Minuette wave (w) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Minuette wave (x) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing 38.2% of minuette wave (w).
Minuette wave (y) formed a short zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, reaching 38.2% of minuette wave (w).
This count expects that minute wave c is now unfolding towards the upside, as an expanding ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), to complete minor wave 2.
Within it, minuette waves (i), (ii) and (iii) are most likely complete, each having subdivided as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c. Minuette wave (iii) has just exceeded 100% the length of minuette wave (i).
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing clear bullish momentum, with both the fast and the slow lines above the zero line. However, it’s still not conclusive.
In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point, although the very clear hammer at the end of subminuette wave b of minuette wave (iii) adds confidence to this count.
At 1.3691 minor wave 2 would retrace 38.2% of minor wave 1, then at 1.3807 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3995 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.3514 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).