It seems that the U.S. dollar didn’t want to give up against the euro without a fight, as it went against all the technical indicators and managed to push price just 3 pips below our invalidation point, before rebounding towards the upside.
Almost nothing changed with our current analysis, although we made some small modifications to simplify and better fit the recent price movement.
We’re updating our count to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3995 – 1.3613
– Confirmation Point: 1.3669
– Upwards Target : 1.3752 – 1.3838
– Wave number: Minuette (c)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th May 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.
Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.
Primary wave D unfolded as a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), each subdividing into a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.
Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave C formed an ending diagonal labeled minute waves i through v, reaching just above 61.8% the length of minor wave A.
Primary wave D as a whole has reached the typical 61.8% the length of primary wave B. Given all these indications, it’s highly likely that primary wave D is now complete.
This count expects that the euro is now moving towards the downside in minor wave 1, within intermediate wave (A), within primary wave E, to complete cycle wave x. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.3295.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a bearish crossover, as well as a series of clear bearish divergences.
In terms of candlestick analysis, the enormous Bearish Engulfing Pattern at the end of primary wave D strongly supports this count as well.
At 1.2789 primary wave E would retrace 61.8% of primary wave D, then at 1.2201 it would reach 61.8% the length of primary wave C.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3995 as within the zigzag of primary wave E no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.2043 as primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in minor wave 1, which is most likely unfolding as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (iv).
Minute wave ii is unfolding towards the upside as an expanded flat labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minuette wave (a) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Minuette wave (b) formed a triple zigzag labeled subminuette waves w through z, and has retraced slightly over 138.2% of minuette wave (a), so it’s most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to continue its upwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.3669
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a clear bullish divergence as well as a bullish crossover.
In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.
At 1.3752 minuette wave (c) would reach 161.8% the length of minuette wave (a), then at 1.3838 it would reach 261.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3995 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. And once price moves above our confirmation point, this count would also be invalidated by movement below 1.3613 as within minuette wave (c) no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.