EURUSD – In Place for A New Uptrend?

As expected the euro moved towards the downside to reach our first target and exceed it by 8 pips, making a slight new low, before beginning to rebound towards the upside.

Our general view is that the euro is now setting the stage for an explosive rally. This change in trend should take place some time this week or possibly early next week.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

6-Hour Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3673
– Confirmation Point: 1.3907
– Upwards Target : 1.4019 – 1.4163
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 25th April, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main 6-Hour Wave Count

The bigger picture sees the euro moving upwards in minute wave iii, within minor wave C, within intermediate wave (Y) of primary wave D.

Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse.

Within it, minuette wave (i) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minuette wave formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, which retraced 61.8% of minuette wave (i).

After that, minuette wave (iii) began to subdivide as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Subminuette wave i itself formed a very strong impulse.

Subminuette wave ii most likely unfolded as a double combination labeled micro waves W, X and Y, retracing 50% of subminuette wave i.

This count expects that subminuette wave ii is either complete or very near completion, and that the euro is about to start moving strongly towards the upside in subminuette wave iii. This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.3907.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a bullish crossover.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.

At 1.4019 subminuette wave iii would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.4163 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3673 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.