Right before the weekend, the euro moved as expected under the alternate count, first rising upwards and coming within 2 pips of our target, before reversing towards the downside as expected.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3821
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target : 1.3730 – 1.3765
– Wave number: Micro B
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 4th April 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.
Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.
Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.
Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.
Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c — and it may also be forming an expanded flat, but we’ll reserve this possibility until price action provides a reason to bring it back.
Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette wave (i) is complete and minuette wave (ii) is either complete or near completion.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside to complete the rest of the subdivisions within minute wave iii.
The MACD indicator neither supports nor contradicts this view at this point.
In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.
At 1.4077 minute wave iii would reach 100% the length of minute wave i, then at 1.4448 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3478 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees minuette wave (ii) unfolded towards the downside as a triple combination labeled subminuette waves w, x, y, x and z.
Subminuette wave z is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.
Micro wave A formed an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
This count expects the euro to move upwards in micro wave B.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing clear bullish divergence.
In terms of candlestick analysis, the extremely volatile “doji” at the end of micro wave A suggests a period of indecision and correction.
At 1.3730 micro wave B would retrace 38.2% of micro wave A, then at 1.3765 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3821 as within this zigzag micro wave B may not move beyond the start of micro wave A.