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EURUSD 3rd April, 2014

The euro went through a short period of volatility today, first shooting higher before immediately whipsawing downwards and breaking the previous low, which confirmed our alternate count and invalidated the main count.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. As usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point to confirm the other count.

It’s worth noting that both count have equal probabilities at this count, and we need to wait for the price action itself to indicate which count is the valid one.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3478
– Confirmation Point: 1.3821 – 1.3877
– Upwards Target : 1.4189 – 1.4491
– Wave number: Minuette (iii)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3754
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target : 1.3725 – 1.3741
– Wave number: Submicro (4)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 3rd April 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd-daily

eurusd-macd-daily

The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.

Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.

Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.

Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.

Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c — and it may also be forming an expanded flat, but we’ll reserve this possibility until price action provides a reason to bring it back.

Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette wave (i) is complete and minuette wave (ii) is either complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside to complete the rest of the subdivisions within minute wave iii.

The MACD indicator neither supports nor contradicts this view at this point.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.

At 1.4189 minuette wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.4491 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3478 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

eurusd-macd-h1

This count sees minuette wave (ii) unfolded towards the downside as a triple combination labeled subminuette waves w, x, y, x and z.

Subminuette wave z formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Micro wave B retraced well over 78.6% of micro wave A.

Micro wave C reached exactly 161.8% the length of micro wave A, so it’s either complete or very near completion.

This count expects the euro soon to move upwards in minuette wave (iii). This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.3821, with higher confidence above 1.3877.

The MACD indicator is actually showing bearish momentum, but it’s also showing a slight bullish divergence, which suggests that the downtrend may indeed be exhausted.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.

At 1.4189 minuette wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.4491 it would reach 161.8% of its length. We’ll be able to calculate more accurate short-term targets once minuette wave (iii) begins to subdivide.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3478 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). Once the euro reaches our confirmation point, we may raise the invalidation point to the end of minuette wave (ii), which currently stands at 1.3699.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

This count sees that minuette wave (ii) is still unfolding.

Within it, subminuette wave z may be forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Within micro wave A, submicro waves (1) through (3) are complete.

This count expects the euro to move sideways to upwards in submicro wave (4), which may unfold as any corrective pattern.

At 1.3724 submicro wave (4) would retrace 23.6% of submicro wave (3), then at 1.3741 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3754, as within an impulse a fourth wave may not enter the price territory of the first wave.

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