As expected the euro moved towards the upside to reach both of our targets and exceed them by 18 pips.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3792 – 1.3880
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3826
– Wave number: Submicro (4)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th April 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.
Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.
Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.
Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.
Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c — and it may also be forming an expanded flat, but we’ll reserve this possibility until price action provides a reason to bring it back.
Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette wave (i) is complete and minuette wave (ii) is most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in minuette wave (iii) to complete the rest of the subdivisions within minute wave iii.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a bullish crossover, with both fast and slow lines floating above the zero-line.
In terms of candlestick analysis, this count is supported by the very strong and consistent upwards bars following the end of minuette wave (ii), as well as the clearly indecisive downwards bars after that.
At 1.4163 minuette wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.4466 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3673 as within minuette wave (iii) no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that minuette wave (iii) is unfolding towards the upside as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Subminuette wave i is complete.
Subminuette wave ii unfolded towards the downside most likely as a double zigzag labeled micro waves W, X and Y, which retraced exactly 50% of subminuette wave i.
Subminuette wave iii is unfolding towards the upside as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Micro wave 1 is most likely unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
Submicro waves (1), (2) and (3) are complete, each subdividing into a zigzag labeled miniscule waves A, B and C.
This count expects submicro wave (4) to be unfolding towards the downside as another zigzag labeled miniscule waves A, B and C.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing both a bearish divergence as well as a bearish crossover.
In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.
At 1.3826 submicro wave (4) would retrace 61.8% of submicro wave (3).
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3792 as submicro wave (4) may not move below the start of submicro wave (3). It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.3880 as within this zigzag miniscule wave B may not move beyond the start of miniscule wave A.