The euro spent the day in a very slow movement with very little change in price. This leaves our previous counts exactly as they were.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. As usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point to confirm the other count.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3786
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target : 1.3856 – 1.3862
– Wave number: Submicro (3)
– Wave structure: Actionary Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Hourly Alternative Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3673 – 1.3866
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3790 – 1.3763
– Wave number: Subminuette ii
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Triple Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 25th April 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.
Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.
Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.
Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.
Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c — and it may also be forming an expanded flat, but we’ll reserve this possibility until price action provides a reason to bring it back.
Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette wave (i) is complete and minuette wave (ii) is most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in minuette wave (iii) to complete the rest of the subdivisions within minute wave iii.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a bullish crossover, with both fast and slow lines floating above the zero-line.
In terms of candlestick analysis, this count is supported by the very strong and consistent upwards bars following the end of minuette wave (ii), as well as the clearly indecisive downwards bars after that.
At 1.4163 minuette wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.4466 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3673 as within minuette wave (iii) no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that minuette wave (iii) is unfolding towards the upside as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Subminuette wave i is complete.
Subminuette wave ii unfolded towards the downside most likely as a double zigzag labeled micro waves W, X and Y, which retraced exactly 50% of subminuette wave i.
Subminuette wave iii is unfolding towards the upside as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Micro wave 1 is most likely unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
Submicro waves (1) and (2) are complete, each subdividing into a zigzag labeled miniscule waves A, B and C.
This count expects submicro wave (3) to be unfolding towards the upside.
The MACD indicator is inconclusive at this point, especially after such a slow period.
In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.
At 1.3856 submicro wave (3) would reach the high of submicro wave (1), then at 1.3862 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3786 as within subminuette wave iii no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that subminuette wave ii is still unfolding towards the downside as a triple combination labeled micro waves W through Z.
Micro waves W, X, Y and X are complete.
Micro wave Z seems to be unfolding as a flat labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
Submicro wave (A) formed a zigzag labeled miniscule waves A, B and C.
Submicro wave (B) retraced the required 90% of submicro wave (A).
This count expects micro wave Z to continue unfolding towards the downside to complete subminuette wave ii.
It’s worth noting that another possibility exists, which is that subminuette wave ii is unfolding as a double combination, with its x-wave forming a triangle. But we’ll leave this possibility on the back-burner for now as it has the exact same consequences as the one we have right now.
At 1.3790 subminuette wave ii would retrace 50% of subminuette wave i, then at 1.3763 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3673 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.3866 as it’s extremely unlikely within a triple combination for the second x-wave to move beyond the end of the first x-wave.