GBPUSD – Continuing Short Term Probabilities Exploration

This week the pound unfolded towards the upside confirming the alternate count and both first and second specified targets were reached and exceeded and the pound continued towards the upside through the alternate count invalidation point.

We are modifying both main and alternate count according to the latest price action adding tight invalidation points and targets.

It should be noted that MACD readings on the 6-hours chart does not provide enough data -at the time being- to confirm or refute the main count`s view.

As always we will let price action decide for us which count is the highly probable count.

8-Hours Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6511 — 1.6787
– Confirmation Point: 1.6663
– Upwards Targets: 1.6678
– Wave number: 5 Purple
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse / Ending diagonal

8-Hours Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6511 — 1.6663
– Confirmation Point: 1.6628
– Downwards Targets: 1.6591
– Wave number: 4 purple
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 28th March, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

01-gbpusd28mar14daily1

01-gbpusd28mar14daily1macd

This count expects that wave (C) black is likely complete and that wave (D) black is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Within wave (D) black, wave a pink is unfolding towards the downside as an expanding leading diagonal with waves (i) through (iii) green complete and wave (iv) green is unfolding towards the upside.

wave a pink is unfolding towards the downside as an expanding leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green with waves (i) through (iii) green are expected complete and wave (iv) green is underway.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves w, x, y, x and z orange.

Wave (iii) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave c orange unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Within wave (iv) green wave a orange is underway as an impulse with waves 1 through 4 purple complete and wave 5 purple is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave 3 purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

Wave (3) aqua unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 red.

As far as Japanese candlesticks study goes, no clear pattern appears at this point.

As far as MACD study goes, the lack of a MACD divergence on the 6 hours chart does not confirm or refute the main count`s view.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.6663.

At 1.6678 wave 5 purple will reach equality with wave 1 purple.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6787 as wave (iv) green may not exceed the end of wave (ii) green within a leading diagonal, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6511 as wave 4 purple may not enter the price territory of wave 1 purple and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave 4 purple once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave 5 purple is underway.

Alternate Wave Count

02-gbpusd28mar14daily1alt

The difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave 4 purple as the alternate count expects that wave 4 purple is incomplete and that it has more to offer towards the downside.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.6628.

At 1.6591 wave 4 purple will reach 0.382 the length of wave 3 purple and as well it is common for fourth waves to terminate where a fourth wave of one lesser degree ended and it is worth mentioning that wave (4) aqua ended near these levels.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6663 as no B wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of an A wave within wave 4 purple. As well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6511 as wave 4 purple may not enter the price territory of wave 1 purple.

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