GBPUSD – 3rd March, 2014 – Monthly

Over the last month, Cable unfolded towards the upside invalidating both counts and therefore we are modifying the main count according to the latest price action and adding an alternate count which expects Cable to reverse directions and move towards the downside.

Cable has been trading in a sideways manner within a range for the past four years -since mid 2009- and that is indicative of a corrective movement. Lately, Cable has been trying to test the upper boundary of that sideways movement. We will be discussing two different scenarios shortly.

Both counts have almost equal probabilities and as always we will use each count`s invalidation point to confirm the other count.

Main Daily Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6583 — 1.7043
– Confirmation Point: 1.6823
– Upwards Targets: 1.6873
– Wave number: v pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Ending diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 3rd March, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Weekly Wave Count

01-gbpusd03mar14monthly

This count expects that wave A maroon are complete and that wave B maroon is unfolding in a sideways manner as a triangle.

Wave A maroon unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) black.

Wave B maroon is unfolding as a triangle labeled waves (A) through (E) black with waves (A) and (B) black complete and wave (C) black is at its late stages.

Wave (A) black unfolded towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave (B) black unfolded towards the downside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Within wave (C) black waves A and B blue are complete and wave C blue is underway.

Wave B blue unfolded towards the downside as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y pink with wave W blue unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green and wave x pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green. Wave y pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave C blue waves i through iv pink are complete and the main count expects that wave v pink has more to offer towards the upside.

As far as Japanese candlesticks study goes, the presence of a hanging man pattern suggests that upwards movement -if any- should prove limited.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.6823.

At 1.6873 wave v pink will reach equality with wave i pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7043 as wave (C) black may not exceed the end of wave (E) black within a contracting triangle, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6252 as within wave v pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave.

Main Daily Wave Count

01-gbpusd03mar14daily

This count expects that wave B maroon is unfolding as a triangle labeled waves (A) through (E) black with waves (A) and (B) black complete and wave (C) black is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave (C) black is unfolding towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue with waves A and B blue complete and wave C blue is underway.

Wave C blue is unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink with waves i through iv pink complete and wave v pink is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave (iii) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange with wave iii orange unfolding as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave (iv) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave v pink is unfolding towards the upside likely as an ending diagonal with wave (i) green complete and wave (ii) green is likely complete as well and wave (iii) green is underway.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.6823.

At 1.6873 wave v pink will reach equality with wave i pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7043 as wave (C) black may not exceed the end of wave (E) black within a contracting triangle, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6583 as within wave a orange within wave (iii) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave.

Alternate Weekly Wave Count

02-gbpusd03mar14monthlyalt

The alternate weekly count expects that wave v pink is complete as an impulse and therefore it is expected that wave (C) black is complete as well and that wave (D) black is starting to unfold towards the downside.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.6252.

At 1.5083 Wave (D) black will reach 0.618 the length of wave (B) black.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6823 as within wave A blue within wave (D) black no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4227 as wave (D) black may not move below the end of wave (B) black within a contracting triangle.

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