GBPUSD 31st March, 2014

As mentioned in yesterday`s analysis, the difference between both counts was within wave 4 purple, so both counts anticipated an upwards motive wave to complete wave a orange and that is what happened today.

The pound unfolded as the main count expected towards the downside in a corrective manner before reversing directions and move towards the upside, however the pound fell short of the specified target by 20 pips and wave 5 purple exceeded the alternate count`s target by 6 pips.

We have one count today and this count expects the pound to unfold towards the downside in a corrective manner either as a zigzag or -less likely- as a regular/expanded flat correction. We should pay extra attention to the placement of the invalidation point as it should be moved to the end of wave (2) aqua once the confirmation point is reached.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6460 — 1.6787
– Confirmation Point: 1.6657
– Downwards Targets: 1.6639 — 1.6623
– Wave number: (3) aqua
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 31st March, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

01-gbpusd31mar14daily

This count expects that wave B maroon is unfolding as a triangle labeled waves (A) through (E) black with waves (A) and (B) black complete and wave (C) black is likely complete and that wave (D) black is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Wave (C) black unfolded towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave C blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave (iii) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange with wave iii orange unfolding as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave (iv) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave v pink unfolded towards the upside as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within wave (D) black, wave a pink is unfolding towards the downside as an expanding leading diagonal with waves (i) through (iii) green complete and wave (iv) green is unfolding towards the upside.

Within wave (iv) green wave a orange is likely complete and wave b orange is starting to unfold towards the downside.

As far as Japanese candlesticks study goes, the presence of a “Hanging Man” candle supports the main count`s view.

At 1.6599 wave b orange will reach 0.382 the length of wave a orange and that is the highly probable target for the completion of wave b orange, as well at 1.6547 wave b orange will reach 0.618 the length of wave a orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6787 as wave (iv) green may not exceed the end of wave (ii) green within a leading diagonal, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6460 as within wave (iv) green wave b orange may retrace more than 100 % the length of wave a orange.

Main Hourly Wave Count

02-gbpusd31mar14hourly

02-gbpusd31mar14hourlymacd

This count expects that wave (C) black is likely complete and that wave (D) black is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Within wave (D) black, wave a pink is unfolding towards the downside as an expanding leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green with waves (i) through (iii) green are expected complete and wave (iv) green is underway.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves w, x, y, x and z orange.

Wave (iii) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave c orange unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Within wave (iv) green wave a orange is likely complete as an impulse with waves 1 through 5 purple and this count expects that wave b orange is unfolding towards the downside.

Wave 3 purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

Wave (3) aqua unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 red.

Within wave b orange wave A purple is unfolding towards the downside and within wave A purple waves (1) and (2) aqua are complete and wave (3) aqua is starting to unfold towards the downside.

As far as MACD study goes, the third of a third wave -wave (3) aqua- had the highest momentum and therefore a divergence is present between the end of wave (3) aqua and the end of wave 3 purple. As well a clear divergence is present between the end of wave 3 purple and the end of wave 5 purple which is typical of a fifth wave.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.6657.

At 1.6639 wave (3) aqua will reach equality with wave (1) aqua and at 1.6623 wave (3) aqua will reach 1.618 the length of wave (1) aqua.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6787 as wave (iv) green may not exceed the end of wave (ii) green within a leading diagonal and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave (2) aqua once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave (3) aqua is underway, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6460 as wave b orange may retrace more than 100 % the length of wave a orange.

3 thoughts on “GBPUSD 31st March, 2014”

  1. Hello Laymoud,

    Thank you so much for your work.
    I have a question for monthly chart. In monthly chart, it is still going to black C. However, in daily chart, it already finished black C and it is going downward. I think I miss something here. Would you please explain about that?

    In attached file, I made weekly chart based on your analysis. Please look at that also.
    Thank you for your time again and have a great day.

    1. Hello Wooseok,

      Thank you for your kind words :).

      The monthly analysis is published and updated at the start of the month -and April`s monthly analysis is due late today by the way-. Both weekly and daily charts on that analysis expected further upwards movement, however, if you are referring to the recent daily analyses, We are focusing on the short term movement and expect that wave (C) black is likely complete and of course that would reflect on April`s monthly analysis. If you have further questions regarding that point just let me know :).

      Regarding your analysis, I assume that wave B maroon is underway as a zigzag ?. If that is the case then wave C black within wave B maroon should unfold in a five wave structure (i.e. impulse or ending diagonal) not a three wave structure. One other point I would like to mention is time relationships between waves A black and wave C black, it seems wave C black is much larger than wave A black from a time perspective.

      A possible alternate count would be that waves A and B maroon are complete and that wave C maroon is starting to unfold towards the downside, please keep in mind that this is a very bearish count and I have reservations with that count as this count expects a truncated fifth wave within wave A purple and it has no clear five wave structure, I will try to include that count in the monthly analysis to explain it further.

      Just let me know if you have further inquiries, your questions are always welcomed, Wooseok :).

      Sincerely,
      Nady Laymoud

  2. That was a great lesson. I keep forgetting a five wave structure for wave C.
    I need more study and time. Really appreciated your comment.
    Have a nice day.

    Sincerely,

    Wooseok

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