GBPUSD 28th March, 2014

On ًFriday`s session the pound unfolded towards the upside confirming the alternate count and the specified target was reached to the pip. It is worth mentioning that the specified target did not provide us with a great trading opportunity and that the pound has been trading in a tight range.

We are modifying both main and alternate counts according to the latest price action adding tight invalidation points and targets.

As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6511 — 1.6663
– Confirmation Point: 1.6628
– Downwards Targets: 1.6591
– Wave number: 4 purple
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6511 — 1.6787
– Confirmation Point: 1.6663
– Upwards Targets: 1.6678
– Wave number: 5 Purple
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse / Ending diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 28th March, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

01-gbpusd28mar14daily

This count expects that wave B maroon is unfolding as a triangle labeled waves (A) through (E) black with waves (A) and (B) black complete and wave (C) black is likely complete and that wave (D) black is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Wave (C) black unfolded towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave C blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave (iii) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange with wave iii orange unfolding as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave (iv) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave v pink unfolded towards the upside as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within wave (D) black, wave a pink is unfolding towards the downside as an expanding leading diagonal with waves (i) through (iii) green complete and wave (iv) green is unfolding towards the upside.

As far as Japanese candlesticks study goes, no clear pattern appears at this point.

We will be able to specify a target for the completion of wave (iv) green once waves and b orange within wave (iv) green are complete.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6787 as wave (iv) green may not exceed the end of wave (ii) green within a leading diagonal, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6460 as within wave (iv) green no B wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of an A wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count

02-gbpusd28mar14hourly

02-gbpusd28mar14hourlymacd

This count expects that wave (C) black is likely complete and that wave (D) black is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Within wave (D) black, wave a pink is unfolding towards the downside as an expanding leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green with waves (i) through (iii) green are expected complete and wave (iv) green is underway.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves w, x, y, x and z orange.

Wave (iii) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave c orange unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Within wave (iv) green wave a orange is underway as an impulse with waves 1 through 3 purple complete and wave 4 purple is unfolding towards the downside.

Wave 3 purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

Wave (3) aqua unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 red.

As far as MACD study goes, the presence of a hidden divergence on the hourly chart supports the view of a fourth wave unfolding, however fourth waves usually terminate at the MACD zero line.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.6628.

At 1.6591 wave 4 purple will reach 0.382 the length of wave 3 purple.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6663 as no B wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of an A wave within wave 4 purple. As well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6511 as wave 4 purple may not enter the price territory of wave 1 purple.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

03-gbpusd28mar14hourlyalt

The difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave 4 purple as the alternate count expects that wave 4 purple is complete.

This count expects that wave 5 purple is starting to unfold towards the upside.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.6663.

At 1.6678 wave 5 purple will reach equality with wave 1 purple.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6787 as wave (iv) green may not exceed the end of wave (ii) green within a leading diagonal, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6511 as wave 4 purple may not enter the price territory of wave 1 purple and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave 4 purple once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave 5 purple is underway.

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