GBPUSD 25th March, 2014

On ًTuesday`s session the pound unfolded towards the upside confirming the alternate count and the pound fell short of the specified target by 13 pips and it continued trading near its highs.

We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and it is worth mentioning that today`s MACD readings add confidence to the main count`s view as we will soon discuss.

We are adding tight confirmation and invalidation points for both main and alternate counts and we will use each count`s invalidation point to confirm the other count.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6550
– Confirmation Point: 1.6481
– Downwards Target: 1.6419
– Wave number: (5) Aqua
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse / Ending diagonal

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6481 — 1.6588
– Confirmation Point: 1.6550
– Upwards Targets: 1.6563
– Wave number: (4) aqua
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Triple Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 25th March, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

01-gbpusd25mar14daily

This count expects that wave B maroon is unfolding as a triangle labeled waves (A) through (E) black with waves (A) and (B) black complete and wave (C) black is likely complete and that wave (D) black is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Wave (C) black unfolded towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave C blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave (iii) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange with wave iii orange unfolding as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave (iv) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave v pink unfolded towards the upside as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within wave (D) black, waves i and ii orange are highly likely complete and wave iii orange is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Wave ii orange unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves W, X, Y, X and Z purple.

Within wave iii orange waves 1 and 2 purple are likely complete and wave 3 purple is underway.

Within wave 3 purple waves (1) through (4) aqua are expected complete and wave (5) aqua is underway.

As far as Japanese candlesticks study goes, no clear pattern appears at this point.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.6460.

At 1.5419 wave (5) aqua will reach equality with wave (1) aqua and at 1.6399 wave iii orange will reach 1.618 the length of wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6588 as wave (4) aqua may not enter the price territory of wave (1) aqua.

Main Hourly Wave Count

02-gbpusd25mar14hourly
02-gbpusd25mar14hourlymacd

This count expects that wave (C) black is likely complete and that wave (D) black is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Within wave (C) black wave C blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Within wave (D) black, waves i and ii orange are highly likely complete and wave iii orange is starting to unfold towards the downside.

Wave ii orange unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves W, X, Y, X and Z purple.

Within wave iii orange wave 1 purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua with wave (4) aqua unfolding as a triangle labeled waves A through E red.

Wave 2 purple unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C).

Within wave 3 purple waves (1) through (4) aqua are expected complete and wave (5) aqua is unfolding towards the downside.

Wave (2) aqua unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C red with wave B red unfolding as an expanded flat correction.

Wave (3) aqua unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 red.

Wave (4) aqua unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y red.

As far as MACD study goes, the presence of a MACD divergence between the end of wave (2) aqua and the recent end of wave (4) aqua increases the probabilities of the main count`s view.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.6481.

At 1.6419 wave (5) aqua will reach equality with wave (1) aqua.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6550 as within wave (5) aqua no second wave may retrace more than 100 % the length of the first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

03-gbpusd25mar14hourlyalt

The difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave (4) aqua as the alternate count expects that wave (4) aqua has more to offer towards the upside.

This count expects that wave (4) aqua is unfolding as a triple zigzag labeled waves W, X, Y, X and Z red with waves W through Y red complete and this count expects a corrective downwards movement within the second wave X red before reversing directions towards the upside to complete wave Z red and therefore wave (4) aqua.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.6550.

At 1.6563 wave (4) aqua will reach 50 % the length of wave (1) aqua.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6588 as wave (4) aqua may not enter the price territory of wave (1) aqua, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.6481 as the second wave X red may not move below the end of the first wave X red.

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