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EURUSD 31st March, 2014

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, but it’s still far-off from reaching our specified targets. The technical picture is still optimistic and it seems increasingly likely that the euro is indeed picking up.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. As usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point to confirm the other count.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3706
– Confirmation Point: 1.3877
– Upwards Target : 1.3849 – 1.3902
– Wave number: Submicro (3)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3877
– Confirmation Point: 1.3706
– Downwards Target : 1.3665
– Wave number: Subminuette z
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Triangle

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 31st March 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd-daily

eurusd-macd-daily

The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.

Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.

Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.

Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.

Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c — and it may also be forming an expanded flat, but we’ll reserve this possibility until price action provides a reason to bring it back.

Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette wave (i) is complete and minuette wave (ii) is either complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside to complete the rest of the subdivisions within minute wave iii.

The MACD indicator neither supports nor contradicts this view at this point.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point, but the last few bars at the end of minuette wave (ii) suggest indecision by showing both a “spinning top” and a “doji”.

At 1.4196 minuette wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.4498 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3478 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

eurusd-macd-h1

This count sees minuette wave (ii) unfolded towards the downside as a double combination labeled subminuette waves w, x and y.

At this stage, it’s a bit too early to accurately label the subdivisions within the newly-developing minuette wave (iii). But estimating by previous waves, it’s likely that subminuette wave i of minuette wave (iii) is now developing towards the upside, most likely as an impulse.

Within it, micro waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Micro wave 3 is forming an extension labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).

Submicro wave (1) is complete, and submicro wave (2) retraced over 50% so it’s either complete or near completion.

This count expects submicro wave (3) to start unfolding towards the upside.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing clearly bullish momentum, with both the fast and slow lines moving above the zero-line.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point, but the recent movement looks fairly bullish.

At 1.3849 submicro wave (3) would reach 100% the length of submicro wave (1), then at 1.3902 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3706 as within subminuette wave i no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave. Once we’ve confirmed the accuracy of our labeled subdivisions, we’ll raise the invalidation point to a more appropriate level.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

This count sees that minuette wave (ii) is unfolding as a triple combination labeled subminuette waves w through z.

Within it, subminuette waves w, x and y are complete.

The second subminuette wave x formed a a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing 61.8% of subminuette wave y, so it’s most likely complete as well.

This count expects the euro to resume its downwards movement in the final subminuette wave z to complete minuette wave (ii). This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.3706.

At 1.3665 minuette wave (ii) would retrace 61.8% of minuette wave (i).

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3478 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i), as well as by movement above 1.3877 as it’s extremely unlikely for the second x-wave in a triple combination to move beyond the end of the previous x-wave.

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