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EURUSD 19th March, 2014

Just as the day was drawing to an end, the euro moved as expected and plummeted over 110 pips. It’s reached our first target and exceeded it by 17 pips.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3644
– Confirmation Point: 1.3925
– Upwards Target : 1.4134 – 1.4335
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 19th March 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count



The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.

Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.

Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.

Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.

Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette waves (i) and (ii) are complete.

Minuette wave (iii) is forming an extension labeled subminuette waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside to form the rest of the subdivisions within minuette wave (iii).

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing bullish momentum.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no definitive pattern appears at this point.

At 1.4121 minuette wave (iii) would reach 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.4416 it would reach 261.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3644 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count



This count sees that subminuette wave ii unfolded towards the downside as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Micro wave A is complete.

Micro wave B formed a triangle labeled submicro waves (A) through (E).

Micro wave C formed an impulse.

At this point, micro wave C reached 100% the length of micro wave A and subminuette wave ii retraced almost 50% of subminuette wave i, so the euro is now in a good position for upward reversal — although it’s possible that it will still move lower to 1.3767 so that subminuette wave ii retraces 61.8% of subminuette wave i.

This count expects the euro to soon move towards the upside in subminuette wave iii. This would be initially confirmed by movement above 1.3925.

The MACD indicator is currently bearish, which is expected after such a strong fall. We’ll have to wait for further price action to confirm or invalidate this count.

In terms of candlestick analysis, this count is supported by the long-wicked hammer at the end of micro wave C of subminuette wave ii.

At 1.4134 subminuette wave iii would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.4335 it would reach 161.8% of its length. We’ll be able to calculate better short-term targets once subminuette wave iii begins to subdivide.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3644 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

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