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EURUSD 18th March, 2014

Today was another unproductive day for the euro, where it began by moving towards the downside only to reverse and retrace most of that decline — although it failed to make a new high. This kind of whipsawing, overlapping movement is very indicative of corrections.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. As usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point to confirm the other count.

It’s worth noting that both of our counts today have equal probabilities, and we’ll have to wait for further price action for confirmation.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3949
– Confirmation Point: 1.3881
– Downwards Target : 1.3827 – 1.3767
– Wave number: Micro C
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3881
– Confirmation Point: 1.3949
– Upwards Target : 1.3950 – 1.3961
– Wave number: Nano c
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 18th March 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd-daily

eurusd-macd-daily

The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.

Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.

Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.

Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.

Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette waves (i) and (ii) are complete.

Minuette wave (iii) is forming an extension labeled subminuette waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside to form the rest of the subdivisions within minuette wave (iii).

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing bullish momentum.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no definitive pattern appears at this point.

At 1.4121 minuette wave (iii) would reach 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.4416 it would reach 261.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3644 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

eurusd-macd-h1

This count sees that subminuette wave i unfolded as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Subminuette wave ii is now unfolding towards the downside either as a zigzag, a flat, or a combination. We’ll assume the most common pattern for now, counting subminuette wave ii as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Micro wave A is complete.

Micro wave B unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled submicro waves (W) through (Z).

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in micro wave C to complete subminuette wave ii.

The MACD indicator is inconclusive at this point, as it seems to be giving mixed signals. In general, momentum indicators are not very reliable during periods of complex correction.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.

At 1.3827 micro wave C would reach 100% the length of micro wave A, then at 1.3767 subminuette wave ii would retrace 61.8% of subminuette wave i.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3949 as within micro wave C no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

This count sees that micro wave B is still unfolding, most likely as a protracted flat labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).

Submicro wave (A) formed a double zigzag labeled miniscule waves W, X and Y.

Submicro wave (B) is forming an expanded flat labeled miniscule waves A, B and C.

Miniscule wave A formed a zigzag labeled nano waves a, b and c.

Miniscule wave B is also forming a flat labeled nano waves a, b and c.

Nano wave a formed a zigzag and nano wave b formed a double combination.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in nano wave C to complete miniscule wave B of submicro wave (B).

At 1.3950 nano wave c would reach 100% the length of nano wave a, then at 1.3961 miniscule wave B would retrace 138.2% of miniscule wave A.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3881 as within nano wave c no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

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