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EURUSD 17th March, 2014

The euro is clearly in a state of indecision. It started the day by moving briefly lower before reversing towards the upside just barely to make a new high. This kind of whipsawing, overlapping movement is very indicative of corrections.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3949
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3854
– Wave number: Miniscule C
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 17th March 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd-daily

eurusd-macd-daily

The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.

Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.

Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.

Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.

Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette waves (i) and (ii) are complete.

Minuette wave (iii) is forming an extension labeled subminuette waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside to form the rest of the subdivisions within minuette wave (iii).

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing bullish momentum.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no definitive pattern appears at this point.

At 1.4121 minuette wave (iii) would reach 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.4416 it would reach 261.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3644 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

eurusd-macd-h1

This count sees that subminuette wave i unfolded as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Subminuette wave ii is now unfolding towards the downside either as a zigzag, a flat, or a combination. We’ll assume the most common pattern for now, counting subminuette wave ii as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Micro wave A is complete.

Micro wave B is unfolding as a flat labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).

Submicro wave (A) formed a double combination labeled miniscule waves W, X and Y, each subdividing as a zigzag.

Submicro wave (B) seems to be unfolding as an expanded flat labeled miniscule waves A, B and C.

Miniscule wave A formed a zigzag labeled nano waves a, b and c, with nano wave b forming a triangle.

Miniscule wave B formed a zigzag labeled nano waves a, b and c, retracing nearly 127.2% of miniscule wave A.

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in miniscule wave C to complete submicro wave (B).

The MACD indicator is inconclusive at this point, as it seems to be giving mixed signals. In general, momentum indicators are not very reliable during periods of complex correction.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point, although the candlestick at the end of miniscule wave B resembles an “inverted hammer”, which is considered a bearish signal that supports this count.

At 1.3854 miniscule wave C would reach 161.8% the length of miniscule wave A, which would also bring submicro wave (B) over the 90% retracement level required for a flat correction.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3949 as within miniscule wave C no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

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