Another slow day for the euro with hardly any change. Our previous count remains valid, and we’re adding another possible count that has a very good probability.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. As usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3914
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3811 – 1.3772
– Wave number: Submicro (3)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 11th March 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.
Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.
Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.
Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.
Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette wave (i) is most likely complete.
Minuette wave (ii) is unfolding as an expanded flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c. Within it, subminuette waves a and b are complete.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in subminuette wave c to complete minuette wave (ii).
The MACD indicator neither supports nor contradicts this count.
In terms of candlestick analysis, the strong “shooting star” pattern which appears at the end of subminuette wave b also supports this count.
At 1.3724 subminuette wave c would reach 161.8% the length of subminuette wave a, then at 1.3609 minuette wave (ii) would retrace 61.8% of minuette wave (i).
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3476 as within minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.3914 as within subminuette wave c no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that subminuette wave c of minuette wave (ii) is unfolding towards the downside, most likely as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Micro waves 1 and 2 are probably complete.
Micro wave 3 may be unfolding as an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
Submicro wave (1) may have formed a leading diagonal labeled miniscule waves 1 through 5.
Submicro wave (2) retraced 61.8% of submicro wave (1), so it’s most likely complete.
This count expects submicro wave (3) to start unfolding towards the downside.
The MACD indicator is showing steadily bearish momentum, with both the fast and slow lines below the zero line.
In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.
At 1.3811 submicro wave (3) would reach 100% the length of submicro wave (1), then at 1.3772 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3914 as within subminuette wave c no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.
Note that all our labels for the subdivisions within subminuette wave c are only preliminary at this point, and we’re waiting for more price data to confirm this count.
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This count sees that, within minute wave iii, both minuette waves (i) and (ii) are complete, and minuette wave (iii) is extending towards the upside as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Subminuette wave i is unfolding as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Micro wave 1 is complete.
Micro wave 2 retraced 61.8% of micro wave 1.
Micro wave 3 was longer than 100% the length of micro wave 1.
Micro wave 4 retraced 38.2% of micro wave 3, so it’s either complete or very near completion.
This count expects the euro soon to continue moving towards the upside in micro wave 5 to complete subminuette wave i. This would be confirmed by movement above 1.3914.
At 1.3945 micro wave 5 would reach 61.8% the length of micro wave 1, then at 1.4014 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3824 as within the impulse of subminuette wave i micro wave 4 may not enter the price territory of micro wave 1.