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EURUSD 10th March, 2014

Nothing has changed with the euro so far, and our most recent analysis remains very much intact. Price merely moved merely drifted up about 20 pips before returning to where it started, and our outlook for the euro is still the same.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3914
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3834 – 1.3795
– Wave number: Micro 3
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 10th March 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd-daily

eurusd-macd-daily

The bigger picture sees the euro moving sideways in cycle wave x, which is forming a contracting triangle labeled primary waves A through E.

Within it, primary waves A, B and C are complete.

Primary wave D is possibly forming a double zigzag labeled intermediate waves (W), (X) and (Y), where intermediate waves (W) and (X) are complete.

Intermediate wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag labeled minor waves A, B and C.

Minor wave A formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave C is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minute wave iii is unfolding as an impulse, and within it minuette wave (i) is most likely complete and minuette wave (ii) is unfolding as an expanded flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

This count expects the euro soon to continue moving towards the upside in minute wave iii, once minuette wave (ii) is complete.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing consistently bullish momentum.

In terms of candlestick analysis, the strong “shooting star” pattern which appears at the end of subminuette wave b also supports this count.

At 1.4073 minute wave iii would reach 100% the length of minute wave i, then at 1.4443 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3476 as within minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

eurusd-macd-h1

This count sees that minuette wave (ii) is unfolding towards the downside as an expanded flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Subminuette wave a formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Subminuette wave b formed an expanded flat labeled micro waves A, B and C, which is now most likely complete.

Subminuette wave c is now unfolding towards the downside, most likely as an impulse.

Within it, micro waves 1 is complete, and micro wave 2 retraced almost 78.6% so it’s most likely complete as well.

This count expects micro wave 3 to start unfolding towards the downside.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing very strong and consistent bearish momentum, with the fast line dipping below the zero-line, and the slow line is not far behind.

In terms of candlestick analysis, no clear pattern appears at this point.

At 1.3834 micro wave 3 would reach 100% the length of micro wave 1, then at 1.3795 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3914 as micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1.

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