EURUSD – A Top in Place?

Over the past week the euro continued its upwards movement. But the bigger picture of this action still looks overlapping and strained, a typical sign of corrections.

Now that the euro has reached several important points, is a top in place or should we expect further rallies?

We’re updating our count to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Also please note that, from now on, we will be discussing two confirmatory studies which reside outside the realm of Elliott wave analysis on a daily basis: MACD and Japanese candlesticks patterns. The presence of these studies has an impact on the confidence of a given count.

We hope by adding these studies that it will prove beneficial for our members, and please bear with us as we reach – together – the best presentation and full integration of these studies into our existing service.

6-Hour Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.2754 – 1.3831
– Confirmation Point: 1.3398
– Downwards Target : 1.3293 – 1.3165
– Wave number: Minuette (c)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 6th December, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main 6-Hour Wave Count

eurusd20131206h6

eurusd20131206h6MACD

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C), and within that in minor wave 3.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minute wave ii is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minuette wave (a) unfolded as an impulse labeled subminuette waves 1 through 5.

Minuette wave (b) probably unfolded as a double zigzag labeled subminuette waves w, x and y. It retraced 78.6% of minuette wave (a) and reached the upper trend line of the channel drawn around its subdivisions.

The final subminuette wave y unfolded as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Micro wave A unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).

Micro wave B unfolded as a zigzag.

Micro wave C unfolded as an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).

The wave relationships within micro wave C were quite typical, with submicro wave (2) retracing 78.6% of submicro wave (1), submicro wave (3) reaching 161.8% the length of submicro wave (1), submicro wave (4) retracing 38.2% of submicro wave (3), and submicro wave (5) reaching 100% the length of submicro wave (1).

This count expects that the entire correction of minuette wave (b) is now complete or very near completion, and that the euro will resume its downwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.3398, which is the end of subminuette wave x.

This count is neither supported nor contradicted by the MACD momentum indicator. However, the presence of what seems to be a “shooting star” candlestick pattern at the end of minuette wave (b) supports this count.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, then at 1.3165 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2754 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.3831 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

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