As expected under the alternate count, the euro pushed upwards to reach the target and exceed it by 3 pips. But the nature and the momentum of this movement still seems strained and weak, suggesting a change of tide may be quite near.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
P.S.: I apologize for the delay in today’s analysis as there was an electricity outage that lasted far too long.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3831
– Confirmation Point: 1.3720
– Downwards Target : 1.3523
– Wave number: Minuette (c)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 9th December, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C), and within that in minor wave 3.
Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and minute wave ii is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minuette wave (b) probably unfolded as a deep double zigzag labeled subminuette waves w, x and y, which retraced over 78.6% of minuette wave (a).
This count expects that minuette wave (b) is very near completion, to be followed by a continuation of downwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.3398.
At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, then at 1.3165 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2754 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.3831 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that subminuette wave y of minuette wave (b) unfolded as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.
Micro wave A unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
Micro wave B unfolded as a zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
Micro wave C unfolded as an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
Within micro wave C, submicro wave (1) formed an impulse.
Submicro wave (2) formed a running flat that retraced 78.6% of submicro wave (1).
Submicro wave (3) formed an impulse that reached almost 161.8% the length of submicro wave (1).
Submicro wave (4) retraced 38.2% of submicro wave (3).
And finally submicro wave (5) has formed an impulse that so far has reached 161.8% the length of submicro wave (1).
Within submicro wave (5), miniscule waves 1 through 3 are most likely complete.
This count expects that the euro will make a new still push towards the upside to complete miniscule waves 4 and 5 within submicro wave (5), which will signal the completion of micro wave C, subminuette wave y, and the entire correction of minuette wave (b). This will be followed by a continuation of downwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.3720.
This count is augmented by the presence of clear MACD divergence. While price has been making higher high, the MACD has consistently failed to reflect a similar behavior in momentum, which has been steadily decreasing.
As of yet there is no clear candlestick pattern that would support or contradict this count.
Our initial target for this new downtrend is at 1.3523, and we’ll be able to calculate more precise targets once minuette wave (c) begins to subdivide.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3831 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).