As expected the euro moved towards the downside to reach our target and exceed it by 28 pips.
Not much has changed with the details of our counts, although we’re promoting the alternate to be the main count, in light of recent momentum changes, as well as updating of our view of the daily count.
Today both hourly counts expect similar movement for the better part of the day, but they vary in their expectations for the movement that will follow.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3612
– Confirmation Point: 1.3809
– Upwards Target : 1.3756 – 1.3784
– Wave number: Miniscule 3
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.3809
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target : 1.3756 – 1.3771
– Wave number: Micro C
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 13th December, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C), and within that in minor wave 3.
Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), and minute wave ii is unfolding as a flat correction labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minuette wave (a) unfolded as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Minuette wave (b) has been unfolding most likely as a double zigzag labeled subminuette waves w, x and y. So far it has retraced over 90% of minuette wave (a), fulfilling the requirement of a flat correction.
This count expects that minuette wave (b) is either complete or near completion, to be followed by a continuation of downwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.3523, with final confirmation below 1.3398.
Supporting this count is the presence of a bearish engulfing pattern at the current top of minuette wave (b), which is a strong reversal candlestick pattern. As for MACD readings, there’s no discernible change in momentum, as it is regularly following the price action, with a slight bullish bias.
At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, then at 1.3165 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2754 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. No invalidation point can yet by placed on the upside as minute wave ii may be an expanded flat, within which minuette wave (b) can make a new high above that of minute wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that the final micro wave C within subminuette wave y is unfolding as an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) though (5).
Submicro wave (1) formed an impulse.
Submicro wave (2) formed a running flat.
Submicro wave (3) formed a series of extensions, the first labeled miniscule waves 1 through 5, then miniscule wave 3 extended into nano waves i through v, then nano wave iii extended into subnano waves (i) through (v).
Submicro wave (4) unfolded as a double zigzag labeled miniscule waves W, X and Y. It has retraced 38.2% of submicro wave (3), so it’s most likely complete, although it’s possible that it extends into a triple zigzag. We’ll leave out this second possibility until price action gives us a reason to bring it back, although we’ll keep it in mind when placing our invalidation point.
Within submicro wave (5), it’s possible that the euro has completed miniscule waves 1 and 2.
Miniscule wave 1 unfolded as an impulse, and miniscule wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled nano waves a, b and c.
This count expects the euro to continue moving upwards in miniscule wave 3. This count is augmented by the presence of bullish momentum divergence on the MACD indicator.
At 1.3756 miniscule wave 3 would reach 100% the length of miniscule wave 1, then at 1.3784 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3612 as submicro wave (4) may not enter the price territory of submicro wave (1). And once we’ve confirmed that submicro wave (4) is indeed complete, we may raise the invalidation point to its low at 1.3708.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This alternate count sees that minuette wave (b) is already complete, with its final micro wave C of subminuette wave y having subdivided into 5 complete waves labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
According to this count, the euro is now moving downwards in minuette wave (c).
Within it, subminuette wave i unfolded as an expanding leading diagonal labeled micro waves 1 through 5, each subdividing into a zigzag labaled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
Subminuette wave ii is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.
Micro wave A formed an impulse, and micro wave B formed a deep zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
This count expects the euro to first move upwards in micro wave C to finish the correction of subminuette wave ii, before resuming its downwards movement in subminuette wave iii.
At 1.3756 micro wave C would reach 100% the length of micro wave A, then at 1.3771 subminuette wave ii would retrace 61.8% of subminuette wave i.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3809 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.