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EURUSD 12th December, 2013

The latest movement of the euro is quite in tune with our view, but it’s still not definitive. At any rate, both of our most likely counts today don’t expect very strong movement.

The euro moved downwards as expected and has reached the low of what we labeled as an ending diagonal at the end of this upwards correction. The downwards movement that came afterwards, however, does not yet look motive – although it could be a leading diagonal, which would explain its overlapping look.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

P.S.: I’m extremely sorry for this unforgivable delay, but I was trying my best to fix my workstation and I just managed to get it back to work.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3809
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3736
– Wave number: Submicro (C)
– Wave structure: Actionary Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Hourly Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3612
– Confirmation Point: 1.3809
– Upwards Target : 1.3792 – 1.3826
– Wave number: Submicro (5)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 12th December, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd-daily

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C), and within that in minor wave 3.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and minute wave ii is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minuette wave (b) probably unfolded as a deep double zigzag labeled subminuette waves w, x and y, which retraced over 78.6% of minuette wave (a).

This count expects that minuette wave (b) is now complete or very near completion, to be followed by a continuation of downwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.3398.

Supporting this count is the presence of a bearish engulfing pattern at the end of minuette wave (b), which is a strong reversal candlestick pattern. As for MACD readings, there’s no discernible change in momentum, as it regularly following the price action.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, then at 1.3165 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2754 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.3831 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Note that if the euro moves above 1.3831, then our next likely count is that minute wave ii is unfolding as an expanded flat, not a zigzag, which will signal us to switch to the alternate hourly count.

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

eurusd-h1MAC

This count sees that the euro has completed minuette wave (b) and is now moving downwards in the early stages of minuette wave (c).

It’s still too early to label the subdivisions within it accurately, but based on similar movements over the recent period, it’s likely that the euro is now moving in subminuette wave i, and within that in micro wave 1.

Micro wave 1 seems to be unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled submciro waves (1) through (5).

Submicro waves (1) through (3) are complete, each having subdivided into a zigzag labeled miniscule waves A, B and C.

Submicro wave (4) is probably still unfolding. Within it, miniscule wave A formed an impulse and miniscule wave B formed an expanded flat.

This count expects the euro to have another upwards push to complete submicro wave (4) before moving downwards in submicro wave (5) to complete micro wave 1.

This count is augmented by the presence of strong downwards momentum, as shown by the MACD reading. As of yet there is no clear candlestick pattern on the hourly chart that would support or contradict this count.

Since there’s no logical way to calculate a target for this still-developing pattern, we can expect submicro wave (5) to reach at least the low of submicro wave (3) at 1.3736.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.3809 as within a diagonal no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

eurusd-h1

This count sees that the larger-degree minute wave ii us unfolding as a flat corection, and that the euro is now within its minuette wave (b) to the upside. It differs from the main count in the subdivisions of micro wave C of subminuette wave y.

Micro wave C unfolded as an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).

Submicro wave (1) formed an impulse.

Submicro wave (2) formed a running flat.

Submicro wave (3) formed an extension labeled miniscule waves 1 through 5, where miniscule wave 3 itself formed a series of extensions at the nano and subnano degrees.

Submicro wave (4) has unfolded as a double zigzag labeled miniscule waves W, X and Y. It may be complete, but it also may be extending into a triple zigzag, or it may even be a flat correction and that this double zigzag is only its wave A. Only further price action will determine the true nature of this movement, but for now we’ll take it as it is, as a double zigzag.

Afterwards, submicro wave (5) began to unfold towards the upside, possibly as an impulse. Within it, miniscule wave 1 formed an impulse and miniscule wave 2 formed an expanded flat.

This count expects the euro to continue moving upwards to complete miniscule waves 3 through 5 within submicro wave 5 to finish this entire upwards correction. This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.3809.

At 1.3792 miniscule wave 3 would reach 261.8% the length of miniscule wave 1, then at 1.3826 submicro wave (5) would reach 100% the length of submicro wave (1).

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.3612 as within the impulse of micro wave C submicro wave (4) may not enter into the price territory of submicro wave (1). And once we’ve confirmed that submicro wave (4) is complete, we may raise the invalidation point to its low at 1.3736.

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