The pound started this week by moving towards the downside confirming the main count before reversing directions and moving towards the upside invalidating the main count.
We are modifying the main count according to the latest price action and we are adding an alternate count which expects that the pound has more to offer towards the upside.
We will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
8-Hours Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.5854 — 1.6257
– Confirmation Point: 1.6090
– Downwards Targets : 1.6050
– Wave number: 5 maroon
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending Diagonal
8-Hours Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.5854 — 1.6257
– Confirmation Point: 1.6135
– Upwards Targets : 1.6172 — 1.6201
– Wave number: 5 maroon
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 15th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Wave Count
This count expects that wave 4 maroon is highly likely complete as a triangle labeled waves (A) through (E) black.
Wave (E) black unfolded towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.
Within wave 5 maroon waves (i) and (ii) green are highly likely complete and wave (iii) green is extending towards the downside.
Wave (i) green unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v orange with each wave within that leading diagonal unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.
Wave (ii) green unfolded as a zigzag correction labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Within wave (iii) green wave i orange is complete and wave ii orange is unfolding towards the upside.
Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.
Wave 3 purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.
Wave 5 purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.
Wave ii orange is unfolding towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple and the main count expects that wave A purple is complete and that wave B purple is underway.
Wave B purple is unfolding as an expanded flat correction labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) aqua with waves (A) and (B) aqua complete and wave (C) aqua is unfolding towards the downside.
This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.6090.
At 1.6050 wave (C) aqua will reach 1.618 the length of wave (A) aqua and at 1.6008 wave B purple will reach 0.382 the length of wave A purple however the first target remains the highly probable target for the completion of wave B purple.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6257 as wave ii orange may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave i orange and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave (B) aqua once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave (C) aqua is underway, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5854 as wave B purple may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave A purple.
Alternate Wave Count
The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave B purple as the alternate count expects that wave B purple is complete and that wave C purple is unfolding towards the upside.
Within wave C purple waves (1) through (4) aqua are complete and wave (5) aqua is unfolding towards the upside.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.6135.
At 1.6151 wave (5) aqua will reach 1.618 the length of wave (1) aqua and at 1.6201 wave C purple will reach 0.618 the length of wave A purple and the first target remains the highly probable target based on the calculations within the subdivisions of wave C purple.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6257 as wave ii orange may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave i orange, as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5854 as wave B purple may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave A purple and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave B purple once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave C purple is underway.
Food For Thought:
A possible count would suggest that the movement from the end of wave (E) black at 1.6261 is only the first leg within wave (E) black and that the movement that followed is wave B blue which is unfolding as a flat correction, that count would only increase in probabilities by movement above 1.6257 and therefore we are keeping a close eye on that second alternate count.