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GBPUSD – Cable: Is It Time To Breakout From The Sideways Move !! (22-Nov-2013)

The pound started this week by moving towards the upside confirming the alternate count and both specified targets were reached and exceeded by 24 pips.

We are modifying the main count according to the latest price action and adding an alternate count which expects further upwards movement from the pound.

We will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

8-Hours Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.6257
– Confirmation Point: 1.6059 — 1.5854
– Downwards Targets : 1.5824 — 1.5575
– Wave number: 5 maroon
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending Diagonal

8-Hours Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5854
– Confirmation Point: 1.6257
– Upwards Targets : 1.6354 — 1.6407
– Wave number: (E) black
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 22nd November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

01-gbpusd22nov13daily1

This count expects that wave 4 maroon is likely complete as a triangle labeled waves (A) through (E) black.

Wave (E) black unfolded towards the upside as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Within wave 5 maroon waves (i) and (ii) green are highly likely complete and wave (iii) green is extending towards the downside.

Wave (i) green unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v orange with each wave within that leading diagonal unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as a zigzag correction labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Within wave (iii) green waves i and ii orange are expected complete and wave iii orange is underway.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave 3 purple unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

Wave 4 purple unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) aqua with wave (C) aqua failing to create a new high above the end of wave (A) aqua.

This count expects that wave ii orange within wave (iii) green is likely complete as a double zigzag labeled waves W, X and Y purple.

Wave W purple unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) aqua.

Wave Y purple unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (A), (B) and (C) aqua.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5854.

At 1.5824 wave iii orange will reach equality with wave i orange and at 1.5575 wave iii orange will reach 1.618 the length of wave i orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6257 as wave ii orange may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave i orange.

Alternate Wave Count

02-gbpusd22nov13daily1alt

This count expects that wave (E) black and therefore wave 4 maroon are incomplete and that within wave (E) black waves A and B blue are complete and wave C blue is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave A blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave i pink unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave B blue unfolded as a flat correction labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave c pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

This count expects that wave C blue is unfolding towards the upside with waves i and ii pink complete and wave iii pink is underway.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.6257.

At 1.6354 wave iii pink will reach equality with wave i pink and at 1.6407 wave C blue will reach 0.382 the length of wave A blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5854 as wave ii pink may not retrace more than 100 % the length of wave i pink and as well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.6747 as wave (E) black may not exceed the end of wave (C) black within a contracting triangle.

2 thoughts on “GBPUSD – Cable: Is It Time To Breakout From The Sideways Move !! (22-Nov-2013)”

  1. I do not understand how you are identifying individual waves as I do not understand your counts. Can you explain e.g are you using close price/midpoints or individual candles or ?

    1. Hello Heather,

      Elliott waves are fractal in nature which means that what appears to be an individual wave or candle on an 8-hours chart (i.e. wave 1 purple within wave i orange within wave (iii) green — Main Wave Count Chart) actually consists of five impulsive waves on an hourly chart and if that specific wave was viewed on a 15 minutes chart, the subdivisions within its third wave would be clearly visible.

      Regarding using close price/midpoints – if I understood your question correctly – each of these has its own drawbacks as using close price to identify waves would neglect “wicks” which represents highs/lows and that would mean eliminating an essential part of the daily price action and in effect rendering the first rule of Elliott Wave Theory invalid which states that second waves may not retrace more than 100 % the length of first waves. The same applies for midpoints. Even though at certain times the high/low may not represent the end of a wave (i.e.: Expanded Flat Correction) using highs/lows and delving into a lower time frame to identify subdivisions within a given wave is the most common way amongst Ellioticians to start identifying waves.

      I understand that point needs to be explained further on a chart to be clearly understood, so if you have further questions or if I got your questions wrong, please leave a comment and please bear in mind that what appears to be an individual candle/wave on an 8 hours chart is presented on a daily basis to our members on an hourly chart thoroughly labeled giving our members that edge, to further assist them planning their investments.

      Sincerely,
      Nady

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