EURUSD – Will the Euro Continue to Fall? (01-Nov-2013)

As expected last week the euro made a significant top and suddenly fell over 300 pips in a very impulsive movement.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

6-Hour Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.38324 – 1.27554
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3293 – 1.3166
– Wave number: Minute ii
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

6-Hour Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.27554
– Confirmation Point: 1.3832
– Upwards Target : 1.4557 – 1.5222
– Wave number: Minute iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 1st November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Weekly Wave Count

eurusd20131101h6
The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and is well contained within its Elliott channel.

This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag. So far minute wave ii has retraced a little over 30% of minute wave i, so there’s a possibility that it’s already complete. But given the impulsive nature of this downwards movement, it’s more likely that the euro is still moving in minuette wave (a), which is to be followed by an upwards correction before continuing downwards again to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Alternate Weekly Wave Count

eurusd20131101h6alt

This count examines the possibility that minute wave ii is already complete or very near completion, having completed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c). This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.3832.

This count expects minute wave iii to start unfolding soon towards the upside. At 1.4557 it would reach 100% the length of minute wave i, and at 1.5222 it would reach 161.8% of its length. We’ll be able to calculate shorter-term targets once minute wave iii begins to subdivide.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. And once the euro reaches our confirmation point we may raise the invalidation point to the end of minute wave ii.

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