Last week we expected that the euro was searching for a top. We believe that it has just found it and that the coming week will witness some strong downwards momentum.
We’re updating our count to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
6-Hour Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.35851
– Confirmation Point: 1.3400
– Downwards Target : 1.3373 – 1.3259
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 22nd November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Weekly Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.
Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minute wave ii is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minuette wave (a) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Minuette wave (b) unfolded as a double combination labeled subminuette waves w, x and y.
Minuette wave (c) seems to be unfolding as an impulse, within which subminuette waves i and ii are now complete, with subminuette wave ii being a very deep correction which has retraced 85% of subminuette wave i.
This count expects the euro to continue moving downwards in subminuette wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.3400.
At 1.3373, subminuette wave iii would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.3259 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.35851 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.
Alternate Weekly Wave Count
This alternate count addresses the possibility that minute wave ii is already complete and that minute wave iii is now unfolding towards the upside.
This count is extremely low in probability as minuette wave (c) is exceptionally short in relation to minuette wave (a), in addition to its failing to make a new low beyond it.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside minute wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.3585.
At 1.4478 minute wave iii would reach 100% the length of minute wave i, then at 1.5145 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.34006 as within minute wave iii no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.