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EURUSD 8th November, 2013

On Friday’s session the euro made another 100-pip movement towards the downside. This leaves both of our counts intact with nearly equal probabilities, especially since the most recent movement is still unclear.

We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.33886
– Confirmation Point: 1.3317
– Downwards Target : 1.3305 – 1.3216
– Wave number: Submicro (5)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.33177
– Confirmation Point: 1.3388
– Upwards Target : 1.3470 – 1.3565
– Wave number: Subminuette c
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 8th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

EURUSD daily 2013

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag.

So far minute wave ii has retraced almost 50% of minute wave i, and it’s likely that the euro has completed or about to complete minuette wave (a), which is to be followed by an upwards correction before continuing downwards again to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Main Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count examines the possibility that subminuette wave v of minuette wave (a) is still unfolding, having formed an extension labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Micro wave 5 is unfolding as an impulse, within which submicro waves (1), (2) and (3) are complete. The movement that followed looks quite corrective and in 3 waves, suggesting that submicro wave (4) is either complete as a zigzag or near completion as a more complex correction.

This count expects the euro soon to continue moving downwards in submicro wave (5) to complete micro wave 5 of subminuette wave v of minuette wave (a). This will be confirmed by a motive movement below 1.3317.

At 1.3305 micro wave 5 would reach 61.8% the length of micro wave 3, and at 1.3216 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.33886 as within the impulse of micro wave 5 submicro wave (4) may not enter the price territory of submicro wave (1).

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count sees that the euro has already completed minuette wave (a), which unfolded an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, and it’s now moving upwards in minuette wave (b) which is unfolding as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Subminuette wave b unfolded as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing about 85% of subminuette wave a, with micro wave C reaching twice the length of micro wave A.

While the movement that followed looks corrective, it could be a leading diagonal forming in micro wave 1 of subminuette wave c. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.3388.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in subminuette wave c to complete minuette wave (b). At 1.3470 subminuette wave c would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave a, and at 1.3565 it would reach 161.8% of its length and also minuette wave (b) would retrace 50% of minuette wave (a).

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.33177 as within subminuette wave c no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minuette wave (b) subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a.

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