On Thursday’s session the euro moved swiftly towards the downside, exceeding both targets of our alternate count by nearly 100 pips.
We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.32961 – 1.38324
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target : 1.3501 – 1.3627
– Wave number: Minuette (b)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.35008
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3305
– Wave number: Micro 5
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 7th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.
Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag.
So far minute wave ii has retraced almost 50% of minute wave i, and it’s likely that the euro has completed or about to complete minuette wave (a), which is to be followed by an upwards correction before continuing downwards again to complete minute wave ii.
At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that the euro has already completed minuette wave (a), which unfolded an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, and it’s now moving upwards in minuette wave (b) which is unfolding as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Subminuette wave iv was a complex double combination labeled micro waves W, X and Y.
Micro wave W formed a zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
Micro wave X formed a triple combination labeled submicro waves (W) through (Z).
Micro wave Y formed an atypical zigzag where submicro wave (C) failed to make a new high above that of submicro wave (A).
Then subminuette wave v formed a strong impulse that was over 230 pips, reaching 61.8% the length of subminuette waves i through iii.
After that minuette wave (b) began unfolding towards the upside, most likely as a zigzag. While the subdivisions are not clear, subminuette wave a seems to have formed an 5-wave impulse, and subminuette wave b is either complete or near completion.
This count expects the euro to move soon towards the upside in subminuette wave c to complete minuette wave (b). At 1.3501 minuette wave (b) would retrace 38.2% of minuette wave (a), and at 1.3627 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as minuette wave (b) within this zigzag may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.32961 as within the zigzag of minuette wave (b) subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This count examines the possibility that subminuette wave v is still unfolding, having formed an extension labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Micro waves 1 through 3 are already complete, and micro wave 4 has already retraced 61.8% of micro wave 3, so it’s either complete or very near completion.
This count expects the euro to continue moving downwards in micro wave 5 to complete subminuette wave v of minuette wave (a). At 1.3305 micro wave 5 would reach 61.8% the length of micro wave 3 and also subminuette wave v would reach 61.8% the length of subminuette waves i through iii.
This count is lower in probability than the main count because its subdivisions and wave relationships are less typical than those of the main count.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.35008 as within the impulse of subminuette wave v micro wave 4 may not enter the price territory of micro wave 1.