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EURUSD 5th November, 2013

As expected the euro spent the day moving towards the downside, and so far it’s still 21 pips away from our target.

We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.38324
– Confirmation Point: 1.3524
– Upwards Target : 1.3539 – 1.3595
– Wave number: Minuette (b)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination

Hourly Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.35245
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3428
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 5th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

EURUSD daily 2013

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag.

So far minute wave ii has retraced almost 38.2% of minute wave i, so there’s a possibility that it’s already complete. But given the impulsive nature of this downwards movement, it’s more likely that the euro has completed or about to complete minuette wave (a), which is to be followed by an upwards correction before continuing downwards again to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Main Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count sees that the euro has already completed minuette wave (a), which unfolded an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Subminuette wave v has reached 78.6% of subminuette wave i, and it formed an expanding ending diagonal labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

This count expects that minuette wave (a) is now complete and that the euro is now moving towards the upside in minuette wave (b), which can unfold as any corrective pattern. At 1.3539 minuette wave (b) would retrace 23.6% of minuette wave (a) and come up to the end of the fourth wave of one less degree, and at 1.3595 it would retrace 38.2% of minuette wave (a).

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as minuette wave (b) within this zigzag may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count examines the possibility that the ending diagonal of subminuette wave v is still unfolding. It’s difficult to accurately label its subdivisions, but it’s possible that within it micro waves 1 through 3 are complete.

This count expects the euro to move slightly to the upside to complete micro wave 4 before continuing its downwards movement in micro wave 5 to complete subminuette wave v and minuette wave (a). At 1.3428 subminuette wave v would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.35245 as within the diagonal of subminuette wave v no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

2 thoughts on “EURUSD 5th November, 2013”

  1. Dear Tamer,
    while I appreciate that there are numerous counts possible at any given time, and therefore you only present what you think are the most likely ones, I fail to understand for the sake of logic, how, quite often and in the light of no major moves, you change your preferred counts.
    An example was the beginning of this week.
    Yesterday you had two counts, the euro moved within your invalidation points so neither were confirmed nor ruled out.
    Given that no major move took place, should you not continue with those 2 counts?
    what was your main on the 4th, is now in fact your alternate on the 5th.
    and what was your alternate on the 4th is gone all together!

    While I don’t have a preferred count, I think that the alternate count you posted yesterday had some merits.
    Yesterday price action actually was a supporting piece (although no smoking gun) for that count.
    If indeed minute ii was over at 1.3442, the action following that low could be seen as 1 of minute iii, yesterday action, 2 of minute iii , whereby the euro moved very close to the low with a retest, and the action since could be 3 of iii, or anyway some subdivision of minute iii.
    Subdivision which should be expected if minute iii were to travel all the way to your targets of 1.45-1.51.

    regards,
    Gabriele

    https://www.elliottwaveforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/eurusd20131104h1alt.png

    1. Hi Gabriele,

      This is a great question. The reason I change a count is the same reason that I adopt a count in the first place: “price action” and the patterns that develop from it.

      Let’s take this week’s change for example. At first, it seemed possible that minute ii had ended and a new uptrend was beginning. From the low at 1.3443, we saw what seemed to be a 3-wave movement, so it was possible that a leading diagonal was developing.

      However, the overlapping downwards movement that followed was too complicated to count as a zigzag. This ruled out the diagonal scenario, since 2nd and 4th waves in diagonals must only be zigzags.

      I try my best to have my analysis serve two purposes: 1) provide the two counts that fulfill the largest number of guidelines, 2) provide “trade-able” forecasts that you can actually use in your day-to-day trading. As I’m sure you know, it’s a delicate balance.

      That said, it’s actually still possible that minute ii had ended and a diagonal is developing. Of course, we’d have to count the entire movement we have so far as a very early stage of its development. That’s why I left out this count (for now), since the price action is making it a lower probability count. However, if future action raises its probability, I’ll immediately revert to it.

      I hope that answered your question, and I’m always available if you have more 🙂

      All the best,
      Tamer

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