As expected the euro spent the day moving towards the downside, and so far it’s still 21 pips away from our target.
We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.38324
– Confirmation Point: 1.3524
– Upwards Target : 1.3539 – 1.3595
– Wave number: Minuette (b)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.35245
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3428
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 5th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.
Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag.
So far minute wave ii has retraced almost 38.2% of minute wave i, so there’s a possibility that it’s already complete. But given the impulsive nature of this downwards movement, it’s more likely that the euro has completed or about to complete minuette wave (a), which is to be followed by an upwards correction before continuing downwards again to complete minute wave ii.
At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that the euro has already completed minuette wave (a), which unfolded an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Subminuette wave v has reached 78.6% of subminuette wave i, and it formed an expanding ending diagonal labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
This count expects that minuette wave (a) is now complete and that the euro is now moving towards the upside in minuette wave (b), which can unfold as any corrective pattern. At 1.3539 minuette wave (b) would retrace 23.6% of minuette wave (a) and come up to the end of the fourth wave of one less degree, and at 1.3595 it would retrace 38.2% of minuette wave (a).
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as minuette wave (b) within this zigzag may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This count examines the possibility that the ending diagonal of subminuette wave v is still unfolding. It’s difficult to accurately label its subdivisions, but it’s possible that within it micro waves 1 through 3 are complete.
This count expects the euro to move slightly to the upside to complete micro wave 4 before continuing its downwards movement in micro wave 5 to complete subminuette wave v and minuette wave (a). At 1.3428 subminuette wave v would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.35245 as within the diagonal of subminuette wave v no wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.