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EURUSD 4th November, 2013

As expected the euro spent most of the day moving sideways to upwards in what looks like a moderate correction.

We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.37364
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target : 1.3428 – 1.3312
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.34420
– Confirmation Point: 1.3785
– Upwards Target : 1.4519 – 1.5184
– Wave number: Minute iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 4th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

EURUSD daily 2013

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and is well contained within its Elliott channel.

This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii, which is most likely unfolding as a zigzag.

So far minute wave ii has retraced almost 38.2% of minute wave i, so there’s a possibility that it’s already complete. But given the impulsive nature of this downwards movement, it’s more likely that the euro is still moving in minuette wave (a), which is to be followed by an upwards correction before continuing downwards again to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.3293 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, and at 1.3166 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38324 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Main Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count sees that the euro is now moving towards the downside in minuette wave (a), which is unfolding an impulse.

Within minuette wave (a), subminuette waves i through iii are most likely complete. Subminuette wave i unfolded as a leading diagonal, subminuette wave ii as an expanded flat, and subminuette wave iii as an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5, with micro wave 5 forming an extension labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).

After that subminuette wave iv moved sideways to upwards and has retraced 23.6% of subminuette wave iii.

This count expects subminuette wave iv to be either complete or near completion and that the euro will soon move towards the downside in subminuette wave v. At 1.3428 subminuette wave v would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, and at 1.3312 it would reach 61.8% of subminuette wave iii.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.37364 as subminuette wave iv may not enter the price territory of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

EURUSD hourly 2013

This count is lower in probability than the main count because the upwards movement from the most recent low seems quite corrective.

This count examines the possibility that minute wave ii is already complete, having completed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c). This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.3785.

This count expects that the euro is now moving upwards in minute wave iii. At 1.4519 it would reach 100% the length of minute wave i, and at 1.5184 it would reach 161.8% of its length. We’ll be able to calculate shorter-term targets once minute wave iii begins to subdivide.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.34420 as within minute wave iii no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave.

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