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EURUSD 31st October, 2013

On the last day of October the euro experienced remarkable weakness against the U. S. dollar, causing the pair to fall 200 pips, invalidating our main count and leading us to include another possible scenario.

Both of our new counts expect similar price action during the day, but they differ in their expectations for the coming week.

We’re updating both main and alternate counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. And as usual we’ll use each count’s invalidation point as confirmation of the other count.

Hourly Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.37364
– Confirmation Point: 1.3472
– Upwards Target : 1.3597 – 1.4277
– Wave number: Subminuette iv
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination

Hourly Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.34729
– Confirmation Point: 1.3785
– Upwards Target : 1.3899 – 1.4121
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 31st October, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

eurusd20131031daily

The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C) to the upside, and within that in minor wave 3 to the upside.

Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and is well contained within its Elliott channel.

This count expects that the euro is now moving downwards within minute wave ii. At 1.3421 minute wave ii would retrace 38.2% of minute wave i, and at 1.3293 it would retrace 50% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27554 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

eurusd20131031h1

This count sees that the euro is now moving towards the downside in minuette wave (a) of minute wave ii. And given the strong nature of this downwards movement, it’s highly likely that minuette wave (a) is unfolding an impulse.

Within minuette wave (a), subminuette wave i unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled micro waves 1 through 5, subminuette wave ii formed an expanded flat labeled micro waves A, B and C, and subminuette wave iii formed a strong impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Subminuette wave iii has reached exactly 261.8% the length of subminuette wave i, so it’s most likely complete or very near completion.

This count expects the euro to move upwards or sideways in subminuette wave iv, which may unfold as any corrective pattern. At 1.3597 subminuette wave iv would retrace 23.6% of subminuette wave iii, and at 1.3633 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.37364 as subminuette wave iv may not enter the price territory of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

eurusd20131031dailyalt

This count sees that, within minor wave 3, minute waves i and ii are complete. Minute wave iii is forming an extension within which minuette waves (i) and (ii) are complete and minuette wave (iii) is unfolding towards the upside, and within it subminuette wave i is complete and subminuette wave ii is either complete or very near completion.

This count expects subminuette wave iii to start unfolding soon towards the upside. At 1.3899 it would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, and at 1.4121 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.34729 as within subminuette wave ii may move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

eurusd20131031h1alt

This count sees that subminuette wave ii unfolded as a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Micro wave A unfolded as a leading diagonal, micro wave B as an expanded flat, and micro wave C as an impulse that has reached exactly 261.8% the length of micro wave A, so it’s most likely complete or very near completion.

This count expects subminuette wave iii to start unfolding soon towards the upside. At 1.3899 it would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, and at 1.4121 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.34729 as within subminuette wave ii may move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

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