On Thursday’s session the euro moved slightly higher, leading us to revise the details of our count on the hourly chart, although the big picture remains largely the same.
We’re updating our count to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.36800
– Confirmation Point: 1.3560
– Downwards Target : 1.3491
– Wave number: Early stages of minuette (c)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th November, 2013. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees the euro within primary wave B to the upside, and within that in intermediate wave (C), and within that in minor wave 3.
Within minor wave 3, minute waves i unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v) and minute wave ii is most likely unfolding as a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Minuette wave (b) has retraced almost 61.8% of minuette wave (a), so it may be complete or near completion, to be followed by a continuation of downwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.3295.
At 1.3295 minute wave ii would retrace 50% of minute wave i, then at 1.3168 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.27567 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.38335 as within the zigzag of minute wave ii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).
Main Hourly Wave Count
First of all, there are several ways to interpret the recent movement of the euro, which is typical of its corrections in general. This count focuses on one of the simplest and most flexible interpretations.
This count sees that minuette wave (b) has been unfolding as a double zigzag labeled subminuette waves w, x and y.
Within subminuette wave y, micro wave A formed an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
Micro wave B formed a combination labeled submicro waves (W), (X) and (Y).
And micro wave C has been unfolding as an ending diagonal labeled submicro waves (1) through (5), each subdividing into a zigzag labeled miniscule waves A, B and C.
Submicro wave (4) may still be unfolding, to be followed by a final upwards thrust in submicro wave (5) to complete micro wave C and the entire upwards correction of minuette wave (b). At this point there’s no logical way to calculate possible targets for submicro wave (5), but it’s expected to be close to the end of submicro wave (3) at 1.3620.
Afterwards, this count expects the euro to resume its downwards movement in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii. This will be intitially confirmed by movement below 1.3560.
Since ending diagonals are usually followed by a strong movement that reaches their point of origin, our initial target for this new downtrend will be at 1.3491.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.36800 as within a contracting diagonal wave 5 may not be longer than wave 3. This invalidation point is calculated assuming the shortest possible length for submicro wave (4) and the largest possible length for submicro wave (5).